La Niña Threatens Reverse Alley Oop

It’s like a horror movie. First La Niña stalked Seattle streets all winter. Then, after we thought we’d finished her off, La Niña shadowed us all spring. We thought we’d left her buried under the snow…but maybe not. Maybe La Niña is just waiting for us to drop our guard.

University of Washington meteorologist Cliff Mass alerts us to the Climate Prediction Center’s forecast (alerting us to the existence of the Climate Prediction Center at one and the same time) that while we’re in neutral now, appearances can be deceiving:

During July 2011, ENSO-neutral was reflected in the overall pattern of small sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean…. However, the subsurface oceanic heat content anomaly (average temperature anomalies in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) continued to weaken and is currently near zero, which reflects the strengthening of the below-average temperatures at depth in the east-central Pacific Ocean (Fig. 4). The atmospheric circulation anomalies were more variable during the past month, but the monthly means still reflect aspects of La Niña.

Mass points out that this isn’t all that rare, even if it feels unfair. The last La Niña double-dip was in 2008 and ’09. Says Mass, “the bottom line:  a double dip, with La Nina coming back is a real possibility, but no sure thing.” Besides, he adds cheerfully, “By late September, we should have a much better idea, but believe me, we have gotten this wrong plenty of times in the past.”

On the plus side, if La Niña does return this winter, we’ll be greeting her with a new coastal radar system, and a web-based application that Mass is calling SNOWWATCH. (“You will not believe what it is capable of!”) As for what you can right now, here’s a link to Alaska Air’s sale on flights to Mexico. Plan ahead!