Cherry blossoms are in the news. Way over in the “other Washington,” they are celebrating 100 years of cherry blossom festivals. They are not celebrating, to my knowledge, not having to wait as long for the blossoms to make an appearance, but according to researchers at the University of Washington, that’s what’s been happening over the past 60 years, a trend expected to continue in our climate-changing future.
Knowing you’ll want more proof than peer-reviewed academic papers, I have turned to Twitter for inarguable evidence:
“Our cherry blossoms in NY have started coming, daffs are fully bloomed…insanity!!” (Garden Design Magazine)
“It’s spring! The jasmine is in bloom, the cherry blossoms are falling and the scent of gardenia is in the air! Does anyone have an Allegra?” (Ellen Degeneres)
“Cherry blossoms in #DC open almost 2 weeks early! See the photos of the lovely #spring scenes along the Tidal Basin.” (MSNBC Pictures)
Soo-Hyung Kim, UW assistant professor of environmental and forest sciences, is co-author with the UW’s Uran Chung and Liz Mack, and Kyung Hee University’s Jin I. Yun, of a paper titled “Predicting the Timing of Cherry Blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in Response to Climate Change.”
It’s not just to help cherry-blossom watchers plan vacations; their motivation was that cherry trees make a useful indicator species for the impacts of climate change on trees, since they are so sensitive to temperature changes. Mapping out the progression of earlier bloom dates so far, they see a moderate impact:
Our results indicate that PBD at the Tidal Basin are likely to be accelerated by an average of five days by 2050 s and 10 days by 2080 s for these cultivars under a mid-range (A1B) emissions scenario projected by ECHAM5 general circulation model.
But of course things can always get worse. Another model accelerated peak bloom by almost a full month by 2080. The researchers calibrated their model, in part, by using the bloom dates of cherry blossoms on University of Washington campus. They note: “The UW has the same varieties that are most common in the Tidal Basins: Yoshino, in the UW Quad, and Kwanzan, along Rainier Vista.”
On this coast, we don’t need to feel so rushed. Our colder-than-average temperatures mean that cherry trees are just beginning to bloom. Besides, the UW Visitors Center is tracking progress toward peak bloom for you, so you won’t miss it. It’s also, I discover and/or hypothesize, a good time to visit Vancouver, BC, which is also rich in cherry blossoms.
