“Undecided,” at 34 percent, is comfortably in the statistical lead in Seattle’s mayoral race, with the incumbent, Mike McGinn, in second at 15 percent (tied with former King County Executive Ron Sims, who hasn’t announced but feels there’s less “wow” here). So says a new poll from Survey USA, a firm “which is among the highest-rated firms in FiveThirtyEight’s pollster rankings.” Margin of error? 3.9 percent.
If Sims doesn’t run, about one-quarter of the Sims-city voters swap their vote to McGinn, placing him in the lead with 26 percent, with arena-quashing Peter Steinbrueck in second with 18 percent. KING 5 has the whole if-then run-down for you.
The poll spotlights the challenges faced by candidates in such a crowded field (“How to Tell if You’re Running for Mayor of Seattle“), with a winnowing primary to be held on August 6, 2013. As with the McGinn-Mallahan face-off, Seattle voters could then find themselves choosing between two candidates, neither with an overwhelming base of support.
McGinn possesses the incumbent’s advantage, though it is likely to provide less of a boost than it could. In a town that often rewards “niceness” at the voting booth, a prickly, mercurial McGinn has to ask his detractors to put aside personal dislike and rate him on his accomplishments. The record there is more complimentary, and circumstances seem likely to fill his sails a bit: “Op-Ed: Could the Tunnel Elect Mayor Mike McGinn Twice?”
Crosscut’s Knute Berger noted that in this year’s State of the City address, McGinn:
…made the case that things are looking good: enviable job growth (fourth best in the country), rising occupancy rates (look at the Smith Tower!), the lowest major crime rate in 30 years and progress on rail, transit, planning, public safety and better schools.
Though he takes his lumps (many self-administered) for his sharp-elbowed political style — his listening skills are sharply questioned in a PubliCola Q&A — McGinn can also claim that his East Coast offense is what sleepy Seattle needs.
Though The Stranger‘s Dominic Holden raps him for his record on police reform, he closes his article with a paragraph that may define the McGinn difference. McGinn may not be a great politician, but he’s good at knowing what a changing city like Seattle needs, even if that’s in advance of the general population:
But for Ben Schiendelman, who runs the advocacy group Seattle Subway, there’s no one else speaking to those transportation interests better than the current mayor. “Basically, he’s been effective in quiet ways, and he’s getting more effective as time goes on,” Schiendelman explained. “I think if we want more sidewalks, more bicycle lanes, and more Sound Transit in 2016, rather than 2020 or later, he’s the best person to keep us on track.”
McGinn’s signal successes have mainly to do with infrastructure, and the best use of it. He’s not always right — who would be? — but he asks the right questions, rather than simply sign up for more of the same. Whether it’s putting the city’s dark fiber to use, or pushing ahead on seawall replacement and road diets, while plotting a streetcar network, McGinn has been shaping an infrastructure that Seattle can grow into. (That doesn’t excuse the state of the roads — we still need those, thanks.) His anti-tunnel stance was informed, at least in part, by the limitations of that design.
Interestingly, this kind of vision (the kind that voters come to appreciate years later) is shared to some extent by his not-announced rival, Ron Sims. On the basis of this poll, the other mayoral candidates will want to hit the vision-quest trail shortly.
