30% of King County Metro Routes May Disappear in “Bus Rapture”

By mid-2014 — when two temporary funding sources expire — King County Metro will be facing a shortfall of $75 million per year. Metro chief Kevin Desmond said this morning that, without replacement funding, this could mean the termination of up to 30 percent of Metro routes (65 routes of its 217 total), with reductions in service to another 40 percent. Frustrated with a reliance of volatile sales tax revenue, Desmond is making a push for the Legislature to allow Metro a more resilient revenue mix.

On the chopping block are the worst-performing routes, based on metrics of riders-per-hour and riders-per-mile:

Routes at risk for deletion (65 routes): 7EX, 19, 21EX, 22, 25, 27, 30, 37, 48NEX, 57, 61, 76, 77EX, 82, 83, 84, 99, 110, 113, 114, 118EX, 119, 119EX, 123EX, 139, 152, 154, 157, 159, 161, 173, 179, 190, 192, 197, 200, 201, 203, 205EX, 210, 211EX, 213, 215, 216, 237, 243, 244EX, 250, 257, 260, 265, 268, 277, 280, 304, 308, 601EX, 907DART, 910DART, 913DART, 914DART, 919DART, 927DART, 930DART and 935DART.

Routes at risk for reductions and revisions (86 routes): 1, 2S, 2N, 3S, 3N, 4S, 4N, 5, 5EX, 7, 8, 9EX, 10, 11, 12, 14S, 16, 21, 24, 26, 26EX, 28, 28EX, 29, 31, 36, 41, 43, 47, 48N, 60, 65, 66EX, 67, 68, 70, 71, 72, 73, 106, 107, 116EX, 118, 121, 122, 125, 148, 156, 177, 181, 182, 186, 187, 193EX, 202, 204, 209, 214, 221, 224, 226, 232, 234, 235, 236, 238, 241, 245, 246, 248, 249, 255, 269, 271, 309EX, 311, 312EX, 331, 355EX, 372EX, 373EX, 901DART, 903DART, 908DART, 909DART and 931DART.

Cuts may seem perverse, since Metro’s ridership continues to increase: Two-thirds of Seattle’s 200,000 commuters don’t drive. If funding expires without replacement, two-thirds of Metro’s system would be disrupted. (Metro was granted a temporary $20 car tab fee to help it cope with recessionary impacts on its sales tax revenue, and has been receiving extra “construction mitigation” money from WSDOT as part of the deep-bore tunnel project, though that funding ends long before construction does.) With just a 17 percent reduction in service, Metro estimates an extra 20,000 to 30,000 cars will flood the roads.

The situation would actually be much worse, except that between 2009 and now, King Country Metro has made cost-cutting changes that it says totaled $726 million:

• Wage freezes: Working with our employees on wages and rising healthcare costs.
• Spent operating reserves: Metro halved its reserve funds used for emergencies.
• Bus schedule efficiencies: Removed approximately 120,000 annual hours of operator break time and bus route “layover” effectively reducing service costs without removing any passenger trips. To date, Metro is saving an estimated $20 million annually and has increased annual revenues by $35 million so far by implementing recommendations from a 2009 performance audit.
• Cut capital programs: Reprioritized the capital program and reduced the number of new buses that Metro was going to purchase to replace its aging fleet or to support deferred expansion.
• Cut staff: Reduced costs not associated directly with bus service by more than 10 percent, including the elimination of more than 100 staff positions.
• Reduced fleet replacement reserves: Consistent with a 2009 performance audit, Metro pulled $100 million from its fleet replacement fund to support bus service during the following four years.
• Increased fares: Metro raised fares in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 for a total increase of $1 per trip in adult cash fares — an 80 percent increase.
• Deferred bus service expansion: Suspended remaining elements of the Transit Now program except RapidRide and already-approved service partnerships.
• Reduced bus service: Metro cut low productivity bus service by 75,000 hours in 2010-2011.