The Super-Bowl-favorite Seahawks start their season Sunday against the Carolina Panthers, a team that’s 23-41 in the past four years. Should be a cakewalk, right? Vegas doesn’t think so—our Seahawks are favored only by three points. Here’s why:
1) Imminent Superstars Lead Carolina’s Offense and Defense
Middle linebacker Luke Kuechly is already earning comparisons to Ray Lewis. He led the Panthers in tackles last year as a rookie (and notched his first career INT against Russell Wilson), and has looked even better in the preseason. Meanwhile, there’s no comparison for Panthers’ QB Cam Newton. His physical gifts—size, speed and arm strength which far exceed Wilson’s—give him a chance to be one of the all-time greats. And he’s still learning the position. If he figures it out against the Seahawks…
2) Carolina’s Many Close Losses in 2012
Carolina lost 9 games last year, 7 by a touchdown or less—including their Week 5 loss to the Seahawks, about which more soon. The Panthers’ luck is due to turn.
3) The Panthers’ Stout Run Defense
The entire focus of the Seahawks’ offense is running the football. The entire focus of the Panthers’ defense is stopping the run. You can see how this would give Carolina a tactical advantage. In last year’s game, the Panthers held the Seahawks to just 2.8 yards per rush; it was, by far, the Hawks’ worst rushing game of 2012. In the offseason, all the Panthers did was add Utah’s Star Lotulelei, the best run-stopping defensive tackle in the draft.
4) Circadian Rhythms
Playing three time zones and 2,832 miles from Seattle puts the Seahawks at a scientifically-proven disadvantage. And even if Charlotte was a Car2Go ride away, winning road games in the NFL is never easy.
5) The Panthers’ Immunity to Play-Action
The Hawks get a lot of their big plays by using play-action—by faking a run, which draws the safeties in, and then throwing over them. But Carolina plays its safeties extremely deep to avoid just such a scenario. In 2012, the Panthers gave up just 47 plays of more than 20 yds. Only 2 NFL teams allowed fewer. The Seahawks, who averaged 3.7 such plays per game last year, had just 2 against Carolina.
So even though the name “Carolina Panthers” does not conjure up a vision of competent football, this is a team that will likely give the Hawks much more fight than you might expect.
Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers, 10 a.m. PST Sunday, KCPQ-FOX (13/113).
Pro Tip: Both of the Seahawks’ 20+ yard passes against Carolina in 2012 were seam routes to Zach Miller. Look to see if the Hawks try this again, either to Miller or rookie TE Luke Willson.
You can buy that t-shirt for $9.50 on eBay. Also, you can buy my Seahawks season preview for 99 cents on Amazon.
