Washington’s Unemployment Rate & Economic Outlook, October/November Edition

Here’s a riddle for you. Washington State’s unemployment rate is tracked to the tenth of a percentage point (though whether the data supports that level of precision is arguable). It has “fallen” for seven out of ten months in 2011, yet in January the (preliminary) rate was 9.1 percent and in October it was 9.0. Is this a new instance of Zeno’s Paradox? Continue reading Washington’s Unemployment Rate & Economic Outlook, October/November Edition

Business, News, Politics

Washington State Economy’s Upside and Downside Risks Grow

The Grand Hyatt conference room was packed with Puget Sound Business Journal readers who, if they sympathized with Ray Davis’s optimism, also have had their expectations tempered by the experiences of the past several years. Yet the takeaway was that while double-dip recession risks have risen, at the same time, so have recovery “risks,” due to the length of time people have cut back on spending. At some indefinable point, the dam is going to break. Continue reading Washington State Economy’s Upside and Downside Risks Grow

Business, News, Real Estate

Before Umpqua’s “Navigating 2012,” a Course Check on 2011

Raha was right, then, to worry about nothing going wrong. He was also correct about Boeing ramping up production, banks remaining under stress to recapitalize under more stringent FDIC regulation, and real estate not bouncing back until at least mid-2011. The gold bubble has yet to pop, interest rates have yet to rise (though any deflationary spiral has been mild), and delayed foreclosures are still depressing market values. Continue reading Before Umpqua’s “Navigating 2012,” a Course Check on 2011

Business, News, Politics

Washington State Economy Needs That Boeing Bounce…And More

That’s well and good, says Raha, but “Boeing cannot, by itself, save us from the impact of another slowdown in the U.S. economy.” Recently, Raha has made a point of looking for upsides, saying that barring this or that unforeseen incident, the state can expect modest growth. Yet, since 2008, the winds have refused to blow fair. Now the disruption of the Japan earthquake has been followed by a summer of wrangling over the emperor’s new debt ceiling, and even incremental recovery has stalled out. Continue reading Washington State Economy Needs That Boeing Bounce…And More

Business, News, Politics

What is the Sound of Washington State’s Economy Treading Water?

Washington State’s chief economist, Arun Raha, has updated his revenue forecast for the state for June, and the upshot is that projections for the 2011-13 biennium are down $183 million. It’s become habit the last few years for Raha to trot out an analysis that shows a near-term plateau, with a soft recovery in the offing, perhaps six months or more out. Raha is scrupulous about noting that even a mild recovery is predicated on fair economic winds, it’s just that, regularly, the economic winds do not blow fair. Continue reading What is the Sound of Washington State’s Economy Treading Water?

Business, News

“Financial Forecast 2011” Recap: We’re Getting Slightly Better All the Time

This morning’s key pronouncement from Raha–“What we need now is just a few months of nothing going wrong,” a big laugh line as it turns out–contrasted strongly with the suppressed panic of the last big economic forecast I attended in December of 2008. The mood now is one of growing impatience, having seen the worst, with the progress of recovery–though all the panelists were careful to emphasize that patience will be exactly what’s required. Continue reading “Financial Forecast 2011” Recap: We’re Getting Slightly Better All the Time