Washington State Economy’s Upside and Downside Risks Grow

Washington State Economy’s Upside and Downside Risks Grow

The Grand Hyatt conference room was packed with Puget Sound Business Journal readers who, if they sympathized with Ray Davis’s optimism, also have had their expectations tempered by the experiences of the past several years. Yet the takeaway was that while double-dip recession risks have risen, at the same time, so have recovery “risks,” due to the length of time people have cut back on spending. At some indefinable point, the dam is going to break. Continue reading Washington State Economy’s Upside and Downside Risks Grow

Before Umpqua’s “Navigating 2012,” a Course Check on 2011

Before Umpqua’s “Navigating 2012,” a Course Check on 2011

Raha was right, then, to worry about nothing going wrong. He was also correct about Boeing ramping up production, banks remaining under stress to recapitalize under more stringent FDIC regulation, and real estate not bouncing back until at least mid-2011. The gold bubble has yet to pop, interest rates have yet to rise (though any deflationary spiral has been mild), and delayed foreclosures are still depressing market values. Continue reading Before Umpqua’s “Navigating 2012,” a Course Check on 2011

“Financial Forecast 2011” Recap: We’re Getting Slightly Better All the Time

This morning’s key pronouncement from Raha–“What we need now is just a few months of nothing going wrong,” a big laugh line as it turns out–contrasted strongly with the suppressed panic of the last big economic forecast I attended in December of 2008. The mood now is one of growing impatience, having seen the worst, with the progress of recovery–though all the panelists were careful to emphasize that patience will be exactly what’s required. Continue reading “Financial Forecast 2011” Recap: We’re Getting Slightly Better All the Time