Seattle Crime Doesn't Take a Holiday

Yesterday alone, if you were reading Seattle's neighborhood blogs, you would have run across Queen Anne's burglaries and break-ins; Beacon Hill Blog's stolen cars, burglaries, and sketchy behavior; and West Seattle's three break-ins. PhinneyWood was feeling exercised about graffiti, but they also reported on the armed robbery at a Ballard Walgreens.

At least anecdotally, it doesn't look like that 22 percent increase in violent crime the first six months of 2009 has subsided. The rise was really led by assaults and robberies, with a smaller increase in property crimes (burglary and other theft). The news of workaday burglaries and break-ins continues unabated, with occasional stand-outs, like clock thievery, drawing attention.

Seattle Crime's Jonah Spangenthal-Lee, taking the long view, argues that if Seattle really did just enjoy a 40-year low in crime rates, a regression to the mean doesn't indicate anyone or thing is to blame. But his "Morning Blotter" post begins: "Burglars will steal ANYTHING," and yesterday's blotter contained a story about a man who claims a gang threatened to shoot him if he didn't rob a store in Northgate. So once again, statistics provide cold comfort.

The Seattle Times op-ed pages also contain a "parsing the crime stats" piece with "sobering reality checks." I'm not sure that I agree with the "parsing" that leads to this statement: "Nationwide, violent crime and property crimes have decreased. So what explains Seattle's uptick? One answer readily given by criminologists is that crime tends to rise during tough economic times." (That would not explain Seattle's uptick, would it? I can't think the Times editorial board means to argue that Seattle alone is experiencing tough economic times.)

Whatever is going on, a recommendation for Seattle's new police chief isn't anticipated until May, so it is unlikely that a major strategic response to the surge in crime will arrive until after mid-2010. That said, Mayor-elect Mike McGinn takes office on January 4, so he will have six months to push his own public safety platform. For the moment, I'd settle for a good analysis of what controllable factors are making this crime wave so chronic that we're being told we should all just get used to it.