Mariners Draw Smallest-Ever Safeco Field Crowd

Only 14,528 came out last night to watch the Mariners paste the Orioles. On the bright side, that's nearly 12,000 more than Conan O'Brien drew at the 2,800-seat Paramount the 2,900-seat McCaw Hall. On the dark side, Conan didn't play to any empty seats. The M's had 32,000 of them. It was their worst-attended Safeco Field game ever.

The local sports community is confused. Why aren't people showing? "The M's ... had an incredibly productive off-season and were pre-season contenders for the AL West crown," writes ESPN 710's Mike Salk. "They are not a bad team."

Well, you've answered your own question, Mike: While diehard sports fans may care about productive off-seasons and pre-season predictions, the casual fan--the one who does most of the ticket-buying--decidedly does not.

When you're someone who follows sports closely, it's easy to forget how few of the things you care about on a daily basis--M's Sign Ramon Vazquez to a Minor League Contract!--make it into the consciousness of the average person. Just like what's news to politics diehards couldn't matter less to me. For instance: Over on Publicola, something called "O'Brien Will Vote No on Panhandling Ordinance" is marked "Exclusive!" Who? What? Ping me when someone takes a bribe.

The average person isn't going to care about the Mariners until the team gets back to the playoffs. You usually don't see attendance grow until the year after a successful season. The M's drew 2.5 million fans not during their 1995 playoff run, but the year after in 1996. They set their all-time attendance record not during the 116-win 2001 season, but the year after in 2002. (Full attendance history here.)

It's been nine years now since the Mariners reached the postseason, and their attendance has taken an inexorable slide. From the 3.5 million fan high of 2002, the team dropped to 2.2 million last year. And, despite the obvious gains in talent under the Jack Zduriencik regime, they will probably drop again this year.

The M's are trying to reverse the slide by amping up their marketing and fan experience. They brought Death Cab to Opening Day, they have improved their food offerings, and have some damn funny commercials. But the Mariners aren't selling beer or body spray. You can't manufacture positive perception when your product's market standing is in the paper every day. Until the M's inch further from the bottom of the league standings and toward the top, attendance will continue to fall.