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posted 03/02/10 11:53 AM | updated 03/02/10 11:53 AM
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What Do Unemployment and Jobs Have to Do With Each Other?

By Michael van Baker
Editor
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Despite the PSBJ headline, "Washington unemployment rate rises to 9.3 percent," there's been no substantial change in unemployment. January's unemployment splits the difference between December's estimated percentage (9.5) and revised downward final (9.2).

What's slightly confusing is that the state claims to have added over 12,000 jobs in January. The Tacoma News Tribune says "job gains occurred in retail trade, educational and health services, leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, manufacturing and aerospace and parts manufacturing."

That would be three percent of the approximately 395,000 Washingtonians who are unemployed.

Statements were issued: "This is a positive sign for Washington state," said Gov. Chris Gregoire. "It’s encouraging to see jobs finally coming back," said ESD Commissioner Karen Lee. No one addressed the question of how 12,000 new hires would completely fail to impact unemployment. It's as if the two measurements had been somehow decoupled for the benefit of political press releases.

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How jobs and unemployment can increase at the same time
On the surface, it seems illogical that the unemployment rate could increase at the same time jobs are increasing. The answer lies in the definition of "labor force."

The labor force includes everyone who has a job AND everyone who is unemployed and actively seeking work. If you're unemployed and would LIKE to work, but you are not ACTIVELY seeking work (what's referred to as a "discouraged worker"), then you're not counted as part of the labor force.

As the economy starts to improve and more jobs become available, discouraged workers will start looking for work again - thus increasing the total size of the work force. Since these individuals haven't found a job yet, it causes the unemployment rate to increase.

For several months now, our economists have been predicting this phenomenon would occur as the economy starts to pick up -- and it appears that it's starting to happen. As illogical as it seems, it's actually a positive sign that the economy is starting to move again.

Sheryl Hutchison, Communications Director
Employment Security Department
Comment by Sheryl Hutchison
1 day ago
( 0 votes)
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