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posted 05/25/10 11:08 AM | updated 05/25/10 11:20 AM
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The Mayor, City Attorney, and State AG on Cost Overruns

By Michael van Baker
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Mayor McGinn

"So McGinn, Holmes, and McKenna have all passed the bar...," was going to be my lead-in, but I couldn't think of a punchline. Who will rid us of this troublesome cost overrun provision?

Mayor McGinn has a new post on his blog, where he makes a lawyerly argument against hoping for the best in deep-bore tunnel (DBT) construction and crossing overrun bridges only when we come to them. First, he lays out the wider context for cost overruns.

Both City Attorney Pete Holmes and State Attorney General Rob McKenna agree that the state's not-one-dollar-more-than-$2.4-billion limitation on DBT spending is for real and enforceable. McKenna adds that, in any event, the state's control of the transportation budget gives the Legislature what Jerry and George know as "hand."

(McGinn doesn't dwell on this point, but I think it's worth emphasizing: Without that cap, and without a clear signal that Seattle must pay for cost overruns, there would be no legislative agreement to fund the DBT project. It would not have passed. Seattle tunnel boosters, in essence, want to play legislative chicken, and confront the Legislature with a fait almost accompli in the case of overruns, daring the Legislature to pull the plug on a project it's sunk $2.4 billion into.)

On the legal standing of the provision that puts Seattle residents on the hook for cost overruns, Holmes and McKenna differ:

Holmes: "It is not enforceable... We are solid on that, we are very clear on that. It is a red herring."

McKenna: "Once it’s adopted, it’s our job to defend it. A law which is adopted by the Legislature is presumptively constitutional."

McGinn gives his summation: "If we avoid the issue and wait for cost overruns to occur, we will be in the worst position of all--an unfinished tunnel, lawyers litigating Seattle’s share of cost overruns, and a state Legislature with the undeniable power to enforce its spending cap."

McCaw Hall promenade

That's just like a lawyer, to advocate for caution beforehand. But it's not just like a politician. Our politicos routinely begin construction on projects *cough520bridge* they haven't finalized funding on, and seem to relish the prospect of sticking "someone else" with the bill for overruns, despite the fact that "someone else" is ultimately the taxpayer.

Locally, I'm thinking of the 2004 brouhaha over the renovation of McCaw Hall, when it developed that the Seattle Center had "projected" King County would give $5 million--and included that in its funding plan--without having secured an ironclad commitment. King County actually ponied up half that, $2.5 million. Altogether, Seattle Opera and PNB were to be left "on the hook for more than $11 million in debt spread over 20 years."

Noted the Seattle Times, a tunnel booster: "The debt exists because the hall was built without all of its financing firmly in place."

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Tags: cost overruns, mginn, mckenna, holmes, city attorney, attorney general, deep-bore, tunnel, mccaw hall
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Dueling provisions
So much hay has been made of the relative enforceability of the "Seattle must pay" provision to the State's funding bill that I was damn happy that Holmes pointed out that it's not the only relevant provision: the other limits the state's contribution to $2.4. Tunnel supporters seem to have put on blinders and refuse to admit that the overruns provision isn't just the state playing a game--even if it's not directly enforceable, the drafters of the bill sought to handcuff state funding for the project.
Comment by Jeremy M. Barker
3 days ago
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RE: Dueling provisions
Yes, bottom line is there's no money to pay for cost overruns beyond the padding WSDOT built in. You'd think the contractor who bid would be on the hook for overruns (with incentives for coming in on-time and under-budget), but I wonder if in this case WSDOT suspected they wouldn't get low-enough bids with that provision. Now, all contractors can happily bid to suit WSDOT's projections because it's no skin off their nose if they project goes over.
Comment by Michael van Baker
3 days ago
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Isn't this just how public works projects get done?
Perhaps I'm blinded as well, but isn't this, since time immemorial, the way public works projects have been done? When has a legislative body ever actually funded the precise amount of money actually needed to complete a large project...take the Interstate Highway System, which I tend to think of as the product of very sober, Eisenhower-y planning. Well, it was supposed to cost $25 billion and ended up costing $114 billion. (Or so says wiki).

The real issue here is that McGinn just doesn't like the tunnel (I happen to be in sympathy with that view). But to suddenly say WHOA THIS PUBLIC WORKS PROJECT IS NOT BEING FUNDED ACCURATELY, WHAT THE HECK?!!? WHAT IS THE WORLD COMING TO??? is a little bit..naive? disingenuous?
Comment by Seth Kolloen
3 days ago
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RE: Isn't this just how public works projects get done?
Not sure what your point is, Seth--yes, it certainly is. But some leaders at the state and city level are pushing hard for a tunnel, and playing down the potential for cost overruns, greater cost burden being place on Seattle, etc., etc. Of course public bodies push costs off on one another, but that doesn't mean it's not important for people to understand that (a) cost overruns are extremely likely, and (b) despite city councilpeople's assurances, the "Seattle must pay" clause cannot simply be ignored. I'd go a step further than you, and simply say that it's par for the course for politicians to lie, evade, or otherwise be less than forthright when it comes to supporting causes they believe in. It's other people's responsibility to call them on it, which is what Michael's trying to do.
Comment by Jeremy M. Barker
2 days ago
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RE: Isn't this just how public works projects get done?
Seth, I think the demand for accurate estimates depends on the size and scope of the public works project. As Rumsfeld the Wise once said, There are known knowns and known unknowns, and unknown unknowns. With larger projects, yes, it's hard to tell, and that's precisely why you should have very little faith in assurances that there will be no cost overruns. That's why you want to make sure the financing has a rock-solid structure--you don't need to know final costs to establish that all parties will pay cost overruns on the same proportional basis, for instance.

The naivete on display here is that the Governor and the City Council keep insisting THEY DO KNOW EXACTLY HOW MUCH this major public works project is going to cost, and they have allocated all the money it needs. It's not humanly possible to possess that degree of certainty, but they have no Plan B because the Legislature has capped the state's contribution.

That is why this case differs remarkably from your example: the Federal gov't did not pass a law capping its contribution to $25 billion, and insist any and all overruns be paid by the states. That, when costs ballooned to $114 billion, would have been disastrous.

No, it's not necessary to know exactly how much the project will cost to decide to proceed with it. But it would be good to know what the maximum cost would be (both in terms of ROI and in terms of bankrupting the city or state--these should be known knowns), and how cost overruns would be shared by all the stakeholders (I don't think, for instance, WSDOT has asked its contractors to share in the responsibility for cost overruns).
Comment by Michael van Baker
2 days ago
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my idea on costs
Seems like every public works job lately has the bid coming it at significantly under the estimate.

So, let the state fund up to the estimate (or the winning bide, which ever is higher) - that's basically what they signed on to when they send the job out for bid. That should give enough cushion to address overruns. Typical bids lately have the actual bid coming in at 60-70% of the estimate
Comment by bilco
1 day ago
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