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By Michael van Baker Views (258) | Comments (0) | ( 0 votes)

Coinstar (CSTR), the parent company of Redbox, had its stock "plunge" 24 percent today, after a preliminary announcement that its Q4 earnings didn't meet expectations. Looking ahead, "Coinstar also has revised its initial outlook for full year 2011 and now expects revenue between $1.70 billion and $1.85 billion, adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations between $325 million and $355 million."

That drop is probably an overly dramatic response, considering "[r]evenue from Redbox rose 38 percent in the fourth quarter, and same-store sales (an important metric for retailers) were up 12.5 percent," as CNNMoney reported. They just didn't meet very rosy expectations: "Coinstar's biggest problem is they suck at guidance, not that their business is bad," analyst Michael Pachter told CNNMoney. Redbox currently has about 28 percent of the rental market, and I wouldn't expect that to dip much, if at all, near-term in response to streaming video access, due to the costs associated with and limitations to broadband access.

As it happens, Coinstar is a Bellevue company, and CEO Paul Davis was at the Met Grill yesterday afternoon, giving a presentation for the Met Grill's "Guess the Dow" stockbroker participants. (More on that in a later post.) Davis spoke a bit about the pressure they'd gotten from major studios not to stock new movies in Redbox's automated DVD rental kiosks the day they go on sale. Eventually, Redbox agreed to a 28-day delay, which effectively removed the 28-day advantage they had over Netflix up to that point. 

As is common practice, Coinstar waited for the market to close to announce the downbeat earnings, so Davis didn't let on at his noon presentation that anything was amiss. (Other than the dog-not-barking sound of not leaking good news just before it's announced publicly.) Particularly disappointing for Redbox, since they traded rental delay for access to Blu-ray titles, was that demand for Blu-ray was not widespread, even at a $1.50 per day rate. (Redbox's standard DVD rate is $1 per day.) ... (more)