The same day Westneat's article ran, I saw an on-view occur at lunch. (Photo: MvB)

Talking Crime Rates and Seattle Police Deportment

The same day Westneat's article ran, I saw an on-view occur at lunch. (Photo: MvB)

Columnist Danny Westneat had a much-maligned piece in the Seattle Times this week, where he “investigated” claims of depolicing–the idea is that, much like a 7-year-old who has been called onto the carpet, the Seattle Police Department is “showing you” by refusing to do anything but the necessary required to their jobs.

It’s an impression actually fostered by the head of the police union, who can’t tell the difference between proactive policework and shooting a well-known public nuisance/wood carver to death in the street.

As it happens, this latest accusation of depolicing is internal, and stems from the ongoing Department of Justice investigation of the SPD for civil rights violations. So even though the outburst is hyperbolic and disgruntled on the face of it–“You have only maybe 20 or fewer officers in patrol that are doing any proactive work right now,” said Officer Ernest DeBella, Jr., suspected loudmouth–people are reacting to it: My god, is this true?!

Westneat asked for data, and found this:

Seattle police released figures Tuesday showing that officers have done 101,058 on-views through nine months this year. That’s down 6 percent compared with the same period a year ago — a drop, but not one big enough to indicate widespread job-shirking.

So maybe DeBella, Jr., got it turned around; maybe it’s 20 or fewer officers who are depolicing.

That said, when Chief Diaz points to 2011 major crimes being down seven percent, even compared to the low rate of 2010, it’s worth looking into major crimes more closely. It’s not as good as it may sound.

Downtown is where the SPD is under the microscope–as south Seattle residents often complain–but it’s hard to shake the impression that there’s a fairly persistent base rate in both property crime and violent crime in downtown the past four years. (So it’s not “the worst it’s ever been,” but you can forgive people for getting fed up with a chronic, dangerous problem.)

When you look at citywide data over the past ten years, you see 2010’s violent crime was down nine percent from a 10-year average, and property crimes down 15 percent. Violent crimes ranged from a high of 4,150 in 2001 to a low of 3,447 in 2008, property crimes 46,306 (2003) to 32,820 (2008). So far, 2011’s violent crime rate is in step with 2010, and property crimes are “lagging” seven percent to 2010’s finals.

You might feel better about that but let me ask you this: Would you rather be robbed than assaulted, raped, or killed? Because, individually, aggravated assault, rape, and homicides are up; only robbery is down, but sufficiently so that in aggregate, violent crimes haven’t risen.