Tag Archives: emergency management

Education, Health, News, Science

Earthquake Prep: The Enemy is Us

Union Pacific Railway Damage from Ground Deformation, Seattle, Washington Earthquake of April 29, 1965, Seattle, Washington. (Photo: University of California, Berkeley)

Here is the third and final part of my talk with Carol Dunn, who works for Bellevue’s Office of Emergency Management, about earthquakes and the Puget Sound. Here, Carol discusses why it’s so hard for people to get focused on the long-term seismic threat, and explains what the disastrous earthquakes in 2010 and 2011 have done to get people to pay attention to the threat.

What’s the most formidable natural disaster threat facing the region? In terms of both likelihood and potential damage?

It may surprise you, but to me, the most formidable natural threat to our region is human nature. There is a biological reason we don’t prepare, our minds are wired in a way to make it really hard to think clearly about future risks. Behavioral psychologists have studied it—and now neuroimaging confirms that it takes place.

Recent neuroimaging studies have shown that we make decisions a split second before we are aware we of it, confirming what was suspected, that it is not the noisy part of our brain that we are aware of that is the boss in our brain, it is our subconscious. This isn’t really surprising though, and it makes sense. While we are going through the complicated thoughts and actions that are required to stay healthy and well, our subconscious is constantly scanning for dangers and opportunities. It needs to have the ability to direct our focus, and even make us act without thinking in a crisis, or we wouldn’t survive very long.

The part of our brain that handles this is very similar in how it works to animals and reptiles and it has a limited number of things it can do some of them are: “Engage or Avoid” and “Fight or Flight.” It can have us prioritize thoughts on a topic that it thinks we need to act on. It can make us not think about something. It can make us hyper-aware of the risk of something—even when there isn’t really one (public speaking, for example)–it can make thoughts of risk feel as if they don’t matter.

The reason that this is our biggest natural danger is that the “default” mode of our subconscious is to consider future risk something that we shouldn’t think about. I suspect our minds are like this for two reasons: 1. The risks from disasters can be radically reduced just by deciding to do so—but it is a multi-step process, and 2: our subconscious doesn’t do multiple step activities—it can incline us to variations on “engage,” “avoid,” and “do both.” From the subconscious perception, the best thing to do about future risk is to “avoid” thinking about it, until it happens, then the subconscious acts—by spurring a fear response that actually makes it much harder to think clearly and bounce back quickly. It is really important to learn how to approach risk differently—and it isn’t that hard, once you try.

After human nature, I rank our dangers like this: The most likely situation that will happen to each of us is having a fire in our house—we have mainly wooden houses and they catch fire easily.  Last time I checked there was a house fire in King County happening every 10 hours. The main cause for that is unattended cooking—you go and start your lunch, for instance, then get sucked in to Farmville. After that, our severe weather—windstorms that cause trees to fall into houses or power lines which causes a cascade of problems.

The disaster that can have the greatest long term impact on all of us is a large earthquake.  They don’t happen very often, but once you know what to look for, you see that everything about our area is defined by its history of massive earthquakes. Our mountains, our Sound—many of our hills even. West Seattle, Somerset in Bellevue—they only have such great views because past earthquakes have lifted the ground up to such great heights. Our area is on one of the most fascinating geological points on the planet—which, of course, is always sort of bad news for the residents.  Not entirely though—with earthquakes, we residents have a lot to say. It isn’t the earthquake that causes the harm. If you are in the largest earthquake on the planet and you are in a field, the most likely outcome is you will just fall down. It isn’t the earthquake, it is what, how and where we build and place things.

We have the skillset to make and place buildings and things in ways and places that are unlikely to be harmed by earthquakes, we just need to work through our mental blocks and make it happen. If society as a whole won’t do that, we as individuals can take the time to learn what types of buildings handle earthquakes well (hint: up to current code, low and square—not too many openings like windows or garages spaced too close together). Expect that there will be periods where general supplies of water, food and medicine will be cut off: build your own back up supply.

A lot of the natural dangers to the region are recurring and highly visible: floods, mudslides, windstorms; and with the example of St. Helens, it’s pretty easy to look at the mountains and imagine them erupting. How do you combat the tendency to overlook the seismic danger?

For me, it goes back to biology—we overlook seismic danger for the same reason that zebras overlook the danger of lions. When we are aware of danger our body’s shift focus to being ready for combat, our heart rate increases, our digestion slows down, we are tense because we are ready to burst into action if we need it. If zebras were constantly thinking of lions, they wouldn’t be able to function, so our brains make our awareness of the threat go away. You can see signs of this all the time. We live over an active surface fault. The logical and rational thing to do would be to make it a top priority to be sure that all of our buildings, infrastructure and systems are the optimal choices to be sure we all make it through alright. We don’t though; we feel very comfortable with our mental reasons why we aren’t going to take the opportunity we have been given to identify each of the things we know will be hurting people and fix them so they won’t. We have our reasons. It is too bad that the Earth doesn’t understand or take our reasons into account when it does what it does. The earth moves, physics happens.

The families in the buildings that hold up well in shaking will do better than the families in buildings that don’t hold up well in shaking. The people with resources and good information will have an easier time than those without resources or access to information. It is already possible to see which groups will be doing better and which will be doing worse. It’s our decision to say that only new or massively renovated buildings need to be brought to code. The residents in the new renovated buildings will be doing much much better than the residents in the older buildings. Though, we do have a head start. Low, wood square buildings often handle earthquakes quite well: That describes a lot of our residential building stock. If we can get as many of them as we can bolted to their foundations, with their water heaters braced, we’ll be doing pretty well.

Have the big earthquakes of the past 15 months brought in a lot of people calling and emailing to inquire about the local seismic risk? Do people recognize that the urban earthquakes in New Zealand and Haiti could happen here, on the Seattle Fault, or are they not connecting earthquakes in the news to a threat around Puget Sound?

There wasn’t a large surge in calls after Haiti, Chile or New Zealand, which surprised me—but there has been a huge surge in presentation requests after the triple tragedies in Japan. It is interesting because I spend a lot of time reaching out to non-profits asking if we can work together to build the resilience of their clients, I have had to get used to not being called back very often. Now it is a lot easier.

This is Part 3 of a three-part series. See also Part 1 and Part 2.

Environment, News, Science

Earthquake Prep: How to Get People to Act

Image from the Burke Museum's online exhibit, "The Big One"

Here is Part 2 of my talk with Carol Dunn, who works for Bellevue’s Office of Emergency Management, about earthquakes and the Puget Sound. Here, Carol describes a few obstacles to convincing the community in and around Bellevue to pay attention to the earthquake threat the region faces. And, explains why social media helps preparedness.

Who are the easiest groups and/or types of companies to convince of the threat and then take action for preparedness?

Most of the groups that are the easiest to encourage to take steps to be ready for earthquakes are groups that usually do pretty well in disasters—being open to reducing risks from disasters already puts you way ahead—they are already gathering supplies, getting to know their neighbors, being sure they have the right insurance. The people who get hit hardest by disasters usually are the ones that are taken by surprise. These groups, I’ve found, are the hardest to reach out to, hardest to explain that it really is worthwhile and not as hard as it seems to simply get a list of key contact numbers so you can communicate with your loved ones, to slowly build up a back-up supply of non-perishable food, to move or secure the objects in your house that can hurt someone if it falls.

The fact is, the way our minds work, unless you have experienced a scare, you have to be pretty comfortable in your life and community for your mind to decide it is a great time to reduce future risks. If you have multiple challenges in front of you, your mind is going to work even harder to push away thoughts of future risk—it isn’t going to feel as if it is something you should do—you may want to do it, but when you start, you feel dread in the pit of your stomach, so you push it away. That is the subconscious saying that you need to have current issues or social issues be your main priority. Your subconscious means well, but it is wrong. We live where the biggest earthquakes on earth have happened before and will be happening again—it is vital to learn how to remove your subconscious from the discussion—deep down inside, we all know it doesn’t make sense not to take steps to be ready for earthquakes—it doesn’t, just do it.

Can social media help outreach and awareness efforts? Or is Farmville-ing and tweeting about celebrities a distraction? I have visions of a big quake knocking out power and people unable to function once their smart phone and laptop batteries die.

Social media is the greatest thing to ever happen to emergency preparedness and emergency response. Farmville-ing and tweeting and obsessing on celebrities are all coping mechanisms to balance the stress and help us move from being stressed out to being relaxed—pretty harmless ones as well. People on Facebook, people on Twitter—they are connected to a lot of really good information sources. Today they are tweeting about a celebrity, if they are in an earthquake, they will not be tweeting about Bieber, they will be able to send a single text message and have it reach their hundreds of followers. They will be able to get information on where help is located, and send information about what help is needed. Actually, there was a study that found that people who played Tetris after viewing disturbing images experienced less trauma—playing games like that may work to disrupt our mind’s ability to lay down traumatic emotional memories and reduce the risk of long term trauma, so maybe a little Farmville can be a good thing in a disaster.

It seems to me that in your job there’s a real danger of coming across to people as a worrywort or a scold when you warn about earthquakes. How do you find a strategy that communicates the need to prepare but doesn’t provoke people to bury their heads in the sand?

There is a biological reason for not preparing, for not taking future risk seriously—experiencing push-back comes with the job. When I give a presentation I start by talking about our minds. I explain why we don’t prepare, but how this means that we walk blindly into dangerous pit after dangerous pit that are just right out in front of us. Learn to see the pits, you are amazed it is so easy to just walk around them without falling in. I help people identify what risks we have in our area, and how to reduce the risks. Identify what resources we have in our area, and how to increase them. The most important message I have is that we are our own best resource.  Each of us has the ability to get through the next earthquake—and to be ready to reach out and help others when it happens.

This is Part 2 in three-part series. Part 1 is here.

Business, Environment, Health, News, Science

Earthquake Prep: Is the Northwest Tech Sector Ready?

Screenshot of recent small quakes--yellow and blue dots--from the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network

In the wake of Japan’s earthquake and tsunami, I got in touch with Carol Dunn, who works for Bellevue’s Office of Emergency Management, to talk about the job of convincing the community in and around Bellevue to pay attention to the earthquake threat the region faces.

I’ve talked about earthquakes here before, and have a blog about various quakes in the Northwest, but the March 11 disaster brought a new sense of how scary things will get here and on the coast if the Northwest’s subduction zone ruptures in the same way that Japan’s did.

Japan’s disaster has receded from the headlines, and when it comes up it’s mostly in the guise of talk about Fukushima Daiichi, but the example of March 11 still sits as an ominous warning: the question is whether we will heed it. With this in mind, here’s what Carol had to say about the Eastside and why tech companies there need to get ready for temblors.

How do you expect Bellevue and the Eastside to fare in a sizable quake? Will it be helped by its newer buildings built to tougher codes? How will the floating bridges do?

Bellevue and the Eastside have gotten lucky on a number of counts—there is far less ground prone to liquefaction than south King County and Seattle. Most of the building started after the unreinforced masonry period of the 19th century (the type of building found in Pioneer Square and Capitol Hill)—and most high-rises went up after the mid-seventies fashion of building non-ductile concrete structures that don’t handle earthquakes well.

Bellevue does sit right on top of the Seattle Fault Zone, on a section that has broken the surface and thrust itself upward. As such, the area has experienced repeated very intense shaking, much larger than any of the earthquakes we’ve had since the city was founded.  Are Eastside buildings ready for that earthquake? It is worth taking the time to work out how well the buildings you occupy handle quakes: Were they built with earthquakes in mind? We have a number of buildings that are up on posts to provide parking underneath. These types of buildings aren’t allowed in California unless they are specifically braced to handle shaking: That isn’t the case here.

An interesting aspect of the floating bridges is that they are designed to handle a lot more movement than more conventional bridges are—they already get pushed and pulled by our huge windstorms. But we didn’t build them with earthquakes in mind. In fact, there are some aspects of the 520 bridge that really aren’t expected to do well in earthquakes—and I-90 runs right along a Seattle Fault Zone strand. Not every bad thing that can happen will happen in an earthquake, but it is pretty likely that we will be losing the ability to use the bridges.

Where are the weakest soils in and around Bellevue: Which areas are most vulnerable to liquefaction and amplification of seismic waves?

Because of our area’s rich seismic history we have very little bedrock, so our whole area shakes a bit more than other parts of the country.  It’s been described as a bowl of jello before. Lucky for us, during the ice age we had massive glaciers that super-compressed the soil in most places. That’s why gardening can be so fun—you try to dig, and the ground is like concrete. Don’t knock it: That is a saving grace for us regarding earthquakes in many ways. Not all of our ground matches this type of soil though: Areas where water has flowed frequently have built up layers of looser sediment that is waterlogged. These are the areas that are likely to experience liquefaction. During shaking, the looser sediment layers move around independently, so the dirt acts like a liquid not a solid. Heavy objects on ground prone to liquefaction can sink into the ground, sewer pipes and wires can float up. Buildings built on ground prone to liquefaction are likely to experience more intense ground motion.

How does the Eastside’s high-tech economy relate to the earthquake threat? Are the tech companies more attentive about preparedness? Has this changed after the Japan earthquake/tsunami/nuclear crisis?

In my experience, the larger high tech companies take the earthquake threat very seriously, and have worked quite hard to build resiliency. Not only that, companies like Microsoft reach out to help the community get ready as well. They’ve been working with our local Red Cross to get their staff trained in disaster response, but also to discuss ways that they can support the area after severe storms and earthquakes. I’ve found that successful companies build risk identification and reduction into the way they do business. It makes sense—identify what can go wrong in your life, and take steps to make it not happen. Each thing you keep from going wrong is one less thing that goes wrong—success becomes much easier. That is what personal disaster preparedness is about as well. I do think the situation in Japan has been a wake-up call for most companies. These worst-case scenario earthquakes we try not to think about do happen: It really is important to identify and reduce as many risks as we can while we have the chance.

What kinds of impacts do you think a big local quake or a subduction zone quake would have on this area’s manufacturing and tech industries? It seems that Boeing in particular would be very impaired by damage to its local factories and the loss of transport networks.

If we have a local surface earthquake from the Seattle or Whidbey Island Fault Zones, it isn’t going to be fun, but I suspect recovery will come pretty quickly—we will be having help come from all sides the moment word gets out that there was a major earthquake. When we experience the next subduction zone quake—the type Japan just experienced, and Chile before that, help is going to take a lot longer to reach us. The locations that would normally be rushing to our aid will have also just experienced a massive earthquake. We need to be ready to reach out and help each other. We will be our own rescuers, we will have to be.

Companies do need to have a plan for how to recover if they face large scale disruption—this is true for any company located anywhere. We have our risk of earthquakes, other areas have tornadoes, wildfires, hurricanes, and human caused problems as well. The more companies can do to increase their ability to function when things are difficult, the better the entire community will fare. Being able to get the population back to work is so important—both psychologically and economically.

And, would King County be looking at similar types of losses of water supply, gas, heat, power, even food, that we’ve seen in Northeast Japan for over two months now?

I read that after the earthquake in Kobe, Japan in 1995, the water pipes were broken every 1,000 feet.  Seattle has a map of all of the water supply problems created by the moderate size quakes that we’ve experienced.  A large quake would definitely cause more leaks.

Because we can predict what can go wrong means that we can build ways to reduce the impact of it going wrong.  We know that we will probably not be able to get water from the pipes—have back up water saved.  If you have a water heater, learn how to turn it off, and know what you need to do to get water from it in an emergency.

This is Part 1 in a three-part series.