Any sports bar between Bakersfield and Seattle that isn’t packed Sunday night should simply quit the business, as the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers will be playing one of the biggest games of the NFL season on national TV. CenturyLink is sold out, with tickets going for as much as $2,500. Whether or not the losing QB goes through with shaving off an eyebrow, as promised in a video game commercial, the game is critical to both teams’ Super Bowl hopes. Only one can win the NFC West, and thus gain home-field advantage for at least one playoff game. The other, no matter how stellar their record, will be relegated to a Wild Card berth, with three road games between them and the Super Bowl.
It’s expected to be a close game; Vegas has the Seahawks as three point favorites. Still, if I were a 49er fan, I’d be worried. Though the 49ers, like the Seahawks, come into the game having won their season opener, the factors that allowed San Francisco to eke out a home victory against the Green Bay Packers won’t pertain against our Seahawks. To wit:
1) The Seahawks can actually run the football.
Green Bay’s rushing “attack” is pathetic: they averaged just 3.9 yards per game last year. Their first four runs of 2013 resulted in 1 total yard. Marshawn Lynch should be able to exploit a patchwork Niners’ D-line in a way that the Packers were unable to. (The Niners’ nose tackle is undrafted Ian Williams, who’ll be making his first career start Sunday.)
2) The Seahawks can actually defend Niners wide receiver Anquan Boldin.
49ers QB Colin Kaepernick threw to the tall, physical Boldin 17 times against Green Bay and their undersized secondary for 13 catches and 208 yards. The Seahawks have bigger defensive backs that match up better with Boldin. Last time Boldin faced the Hawks, in 2011, he had just 2 catches for 22 yards.
3) The Niners won without a running game, which is unlikely against Seattle.
You think the Seahawks’ rushing attack was bad against Carolina? The Niners were even worse against Green Bay, gaining just 90 yards on 34 attempts, an average of 2.6 yards per rush (the Hawks at least managed 2.7). Niners starting RB Frank Gore is on the wrong side of 30, his 1,932 career rushing attempts may finally be catching up with him. Backup Kendall Hunter is coming off an Achilles tear.
4) Seattle is a tough place to play your first road game.
The last two teams to play their first road game of the year at CenturyLink lost by a combined 59-6.
5) Remember last time?
Yes, it was last season, and both teams have different plays, players, and coaches, but it’s historical fact that the last time these two teams played, the Seahawks won 42-13.
I doubt we’ll see a blowout like last December’s, but I expect the Seahawks to control Colin Kaepernick, run the ball effectively, and, should luck not play too much of a factor, win by a comfortable margin.
PRO TIP: Last Sunday, 53 of the Packers’ 63 rushing yards came in the second half as the Niners’ thin line began to tire. Look for Marshawn Lynch — or possibly speedy second-round pick Christine Michael, who has yet to make his NFL debut — to pop a big run late in the game.
The Seahawks host the Niners at 5:30pm, the game will be televised by NBC.
The Super-Bowl-favorite Seahawks start their season Sunday against the Carolina Panthers, a team that’s 23-41 in the past four years. Should be a cakewalk, right? Vegas doesn’t think so—our Seahawks are favored only by three points. Here’s why:
1) Imminent Superstars Lead Carolina’s Offense and Defense
Middle linebacker Luke Kuechly is already earning comparisons to Ray Lewis. He led the Panthers in tackles last year as a rookie (and notched his first career INT against Russell Wilson), and has looked even better in the preseason. Meanwhile, there’s no comparison for Panthers’ QB Cam Newton. His physical gifts—size, speed and arm strength which far exceed Wilson’s—give him a chance to be one of the all-time greats. And he’s still learning the position. If he figures it out against the Seahawks…
2) Carolina’s Many Close Losses in 2012
Carolina lost 9 games last year, 7 by a touchdown or less—including their Week 5 loss to the Seahawks, about which more soon. The Panthers’ luck is due to turn.
3) The Panthers’ Stout Run Defense
The entire focus of the Seahawks’ offense is running the football. The entire focus of the Panthers’ defense is stopping the run. You can see how this would give Carolina a tactical advantage. In last year’s game, the Panthers held the Seahawks to just 2.8 yards per rush; it was, by far, the Hawks’ worst rushing game of 2012. In the offseason, all the Panthers did was add Utah’s Star Lotulelei, the best run-stopping defensive tackle in the draft.
4) Circadian Rhythms
Playing three time zones and 2,832 miles from Seattle puts the Seahawks at a scientifically-proven disadvantage. And even if Charlotte was a Car2Go ride away, winning road games in the NFL is never easy.
5) The Panthers’ Immunity to Play-Action
The Hawks get a lot of their big plays by using play-action—by faking a run, which draws the safeties in, and then throwing over them. But Carolina plays its safeties extremely deep to avoid just such a scenario. In 2012, the Panthers gave up just 47 plays of more than 20 yds. Only 2 NFL teams allowed fewer. The Seahawks, who averaged 3.7 such plays per game last year, had just 2 against Carolina.
So even though the name “Carolina Panthers” does not conjure up a vision of competent football, this is a team that will likely give the Hawks much more fight than you might expect.
Pro Tip: Both of the Seahawks’ 20+ yard passes against Carolina in 2012 were seam routes to Zach Miller. Look to see if the Hawks try this again, either to Miller or rookie TE Luke Willson.
You can buy that t-shirt for $9.50 on eBay. Also, you can buy my Seahawks season preview for 99 cents on Amazon.
“If you’re anything like me,” writes sportswriter Seth Kolloen, “you want to soak up every second of a [Seahawks] season that, according to Vegas, has an 8-1 chance of ending with a win in the Super Bowl. Hence, this extended preview, which will help us all get the most out of this once-in-a-generation team.”
The extended preview — 15 glorious pages — is now available at Amazon for download onto your Kindle device (or app) for just $0.99. Kolloen says it’s written for the fans, people somewhere between “Is there a game on?” and those who spend the off-season tallying novelty songs about the Seahawks.
The inimitable Kolloen style (full disclosure: Kolloen both writes, and fails to write, for us here at The SunBreak) is apparent in this introductory set-up:
In three years, Pete Carroll and John Schneider have amassed the best talent in Seahawks’ history by eschewing Ruskell-era measures like veteran-ness and good-in-the-locker-room-osity in favor of size, speed, and strength. The Seahawks have the league’s best young players in almost every position group. From 23-year-old Bobby Wagner to 24-year-old Russell Wilson to 25-year-old Golden Tate, the Seahawks would be awful at Reagan Administration trivia. They are freaking awesome at football.
The preview discusses the Hawks’ offensive and defensive schemes, coaching staff and their approaches, the team’s stars and position groups, and includes the season schedule as well, each game with a scouting snapshot:
Week 1: @ Carolina Panthers
Young Cam Newton is surrounded by aging skill players like Steve Smith, DeAngelo Williams, and Ted Ginn. But the Panthers have a sprightly D led by 2nd-year LB Luke Kuechly, who was dominant in preseason.
Previewing done, this might be a good time to mention the NFL’s Game Rewind service, as well. Stream every regular season Seahawks game (after it has aired), commercial-free and in HD, for $29.99. Stream all NFL regular season and playoff games, plus the Super Bowl, for $69.99. There are a variety of packages, and billing options. Take a peek.
For about two minutes on Saturday night, the 71,963 people at a sold-out Husky stadium wondered what kind of homecoming it was going to be. Their quarterback had thrown for an interception, and the 19th-ranked Boise State Broncos were on a steady march downfield.
Flash forward to just under five minutes in the game, and the Huskies had racked up 592 yards and 38 points, to a pair of field goals from Boise State. RB Bishop Sankey rumbled for 161 of those yards, on 25 carries. QB Keith Price, 324 yards, going 23 for 31.
It was an achievement and a statement, says Art Thiel, that outshone the new $280-million stadium itself. But that said, Qwest Field has real competition in the decibel arena. Even lay people reading University of Washington seismographs will have no trouble determining when the Huskies score.
Two “smaller” HD screens at the west end are mirrored by the monster screen at the west end. (You’d like to see more stats displayed, with all this screen-power.) Food and drink concessions now come with food-and-drink areas you might well want to spend time in, with a large eastern plaza. Club Husky comes with padded seats, cupholders, and a lounge that people were stopping to take pictures of themselves in.
The Philosophy
“As we looked at our team and we looked at the guys on the draft board we knew it was going to be a challenge to take guys because we like the players we have. The depth charts are situated well, and they’re young, and they’re just reaching the prime of their playing time. I look at is as hoping we can add a competitive nature to the position, and that’ll bring out the best in everybody that’s there.” —Head coach Pete Carroll
The Picks Christine Michael, RB – Round 2, #62 overall (@CMike33)
Fun Fact: Ejected from a game last season after punching an opposing player.
“He’s our kind of runner. He’s a tough, intense, one-cut upfield guy. You don’t know if he’s gonna try to make you miss or run into ya.” —General manager John Schneider
“We ran the ball more than anybody in the NFL last year, so we want this position loaded up.” —Carroll
“You can’t go through drafts passing on talents like Michael. When you start doing that is when you start to make a lot of mistakes.” —Schneider
“He’s an explosive NFL back. He’s a traditional one-cut downhill guy. Marshawn has a little more slide. Christine is: ‘Downhill now.’” —Area scout Matt Berry
“Seattle was going to find it difficult to make a tangible improvement to the team without a round one pick this year. By taking Michael, they managed it anyway.” —Rob Staton, Seahawks Draft Blog
“Michael has the athleticism, size, and physical upside of Adrian Peterson. He even looks like AP a little bit. And as I found out today, they both spent time doing offseason workouts together in Texas. Peterson has better lateral agility and doesn’t have a fumble problem, but in terms of physical dominance, Michael’s potential is sky high.” —Kip Earlywine, Seahawks Draft Blog
“Michael might be the most talented back in this class. If Seattle can keep him focused, Michael has a chance to be a steal at this point.” —ESPN
Similar Picks: Golden Tate (#60, 2010); Darryl Tapp (#63, 2006); Anton Palepoi (#60, 2002); Bob Jury (#63, 1978); Steve Raible (#59, 1976); Jeff Lloyd (#62, 1976).
Jordan Hill, DL – Round 3, #87 overall (@J_HILL_47)
Fun Fact: Led high school team to two Pennsylvania state championships.
“He’ll be right in the rotation. We’ve been trying to get more activity inside and this is the guy we thought was one of the best players in the draft at creating space inside.” —Carroll
“He can get up the field and be disruptive and is really quick laterally. That was a hole for us.” —Schneider
“Hill is a high-floor, low-ceiling option at defensive tackle. He’s good for a few nifty plays a game in the backfield, but he’s not a dominant force. In terms of upside, there were many other DTs who are better that Seattle passed on for Hill.” —Kip Earlywine, Seahawks Draft Blog
“Hill isn’t overly physical, which means his early contributions will be in sub packages.” —ESPN
Similar Picks: Brandon Mebane (#85, 2007); David Greene (#85, 2005); Kris Richard (#85, 2002); Dean Wells (#85, 1993); Chris Warren (#89, 1990); Rickey Hagood (#86, 1984); Scott Phillips (#84, 1981); John Yarno (#87, 1977), Rick Engels (#89, 1976).
Chris Harper, WR – Round 4, #123 overall (@THEChrisHarper)
Fun Fact: Started college career as a QB at Oregon.
“He’s a big, strong, physical receiver. We like that element, that’s different than the guys we have. We see him as an outside receiver.” —Carroll
“Former quarterback with a good understanding of the passing game but still developing as a route runner.” —ESPN
“He has enough speed to threaten the big play and the strength to shield defenders from the ball, often coming through with tough grabs with corners draped over him.” —Rob Rang, NFLDraftScout.com
“I’ve only been (playing WR) three years. I’m still new but it feels more natural now.” —Chris Harper
“He’ll be a versatile weapon in the offense – he’s played inside and out in Kansas State’s offense – and his downfield blocking must have been super attractive to the Hawks.” —Danny Kelly, Field Gulls
“Harper is the size of MLB Bobby Wagner … 6-0, 234 pounds.” —Dave Boling, Tacoma News Tribune
“Love it!!! This guy is 230 lbs with speed! Over 6 feet!” —@DavisHsuSeattle
Similar Picks: Red Bryant (#121, 2008); Mansfield Wrotto (#124, 2007); Gary Dandridge (#122, 1992); Mark Napolitan (#123, 1985); Chris Castor (#123, 1983); Randy Johnson (#122, 1976); Andy Bolton (#123, 1976).
Jesse Williams, DT – Round 5, #137 overall (@TheMonstar)
Fun fact: Born and raised in Australia, didn’t play football until he was 14.
“He’ll fill a specific role for us. His strength and his ability to compress the cockpit is really intriguing to us.” —Schneider
“We’d like him to play three-technique. We think he’ll play a lot of first and second down and we’ll see how he can push the pocket on third down.” —Carroll
“A disruptor but not a finisher. Has a little bit of upside if he continues to improve array of pass rush moves and develop a better pass-rushing gameplan.” —ESPN
“Williams isn’t going to pressure the quarterback often but his size and strength will make him a force in the middle.” —Rob Rang, NFLDraftScout.com
“Seahawks get first-round quality DT Jesse Williams in the fifth round? Of course they do.” —Will Brinson, CBS Sports
“Run-stopping is my strength. Hopefully in the NFL I’ll get a better chance at pass rushing.” —Jesse Williams
“The perfect example of the deep talent pool at defensive line in this year’s draft. At 6-3 ½ and 323 pounds, Williams is a powerhouse inside, demonstrated by his 600-pound bench press.” —Eric Williams, Tacoma News Tribune
Read more here: http://blog.thenewstribune.com/seahawks/2013/04/27/seahawks-select-dt-jesse-williams-at-no-137-cb-tharold-simon-no-138-pick-in-fifth-round/#storylink=cpy
“You’re always looking for the guy whose best football is ahead of him. My hunch is that Williams may be one of those guys.” —Danny Kelly, Field Gulls
Tharold Simon, CB – Round 5, #138 overall (@t_simon24)
Fun Fact: Got arrested the Thursday before the draft for allegedly threatening a cop.
“Very long, very aggressive, should fit in very well. He’s coming in to compete outside.” —Carroll
“Good-sized athlete with quick read/react skills. Long arms and uses his reach to make plays on the ball. Not a quick-twitch athlete and lacks elite long-speed.” —NFLDraftScout.com
“I know exactly how (the Seahawks) play. They like tall physical corners. They like to press.” —Tharold Simon
“A right side corner – likely the long-term successor to Brandon Browner.” —Danny Kelly, Field Gulls
Similar Picks: Solomon Bates (#135, 2003); Alex Bannister (#140, 2001); Floyd Wedderburn (#140, 1999); Johnnie Jones (#137, 1985), Steve Durham (#140, 1981).
Luke Willson, TE – Round 5, #158 overall
Fun Fact: Played on the Canadian national junior baseball team alongside current Blue Jay Brett Lawrie.
“For us, the second-best tester of all the tight ends in this draft.” —Schneider
“We think he can get down the field for us, but we’d really like to develop him to do everything.” —Carroll
“(Had) a stellar workout at Rice’s pro day. Wilson posted a 4.49 forty-yard dash time paired with 23-reps on the bench press and a 38-inch vertical leap.” —Roni Wade, Pro Player Insiders
“Athletic tight end prospect with a large upside. Must commit to football and find a team willing to develop his skills” —Draft Insider
“He’s going to be a guy who can give us a downfield threat from that tight end position.” —Seahawks area scout Ed Dodds (via Eric Williams, Tacoma News Tribune)
Similar picks: Mark LeGree (#156, 2011); Jeb Huckeba (#159, 2005); D.J. Hackett (#157, 2004); Roy Hart (#158, 1988); Larry Bates (#156, 1976); Al Darby (#157, 1976).
Spencer Ware, RB – Round 6, #194 overall (@spenceware11)
Fun Fact: 2nd LSU underclassman taken by Seahawks (Simon).
“He’s such a tough guy. I think he really fits the style. We’re hoping that we can groom him as a fullback who can play tailback.” —Carroll
“Runs with a purpose. Plays the game with passion and energy.” —ESPN
“Valuable on third down. A willing blocker and skilled receiver with soft hands and better than average athleticism.” —Billy Gomila, SBNation
“(Ware) ran the 40-yard dash in 4.62 and 4.63 seconds. He posted a 34 inch vertical leap and a 10-foot-1/2 inch broad jump. Ware had a good workout on the day, and caught the ball exceptionally well.” —Gil Brandt, NFL.com
“A solid interior runner who can line up in a power-running offense or be used as a short-yardage back at the next level.” —Draft Insider
“With the backfield getting a bit crowded…(Michael) Robinson’s role and cap hit begins to come into question. Ware is a logical fullback convert, a role he played at times at LSU. Ware is a fantastic pass-catcher out of the backfield and as a former HS Quarterback, has been schooled in reading defenses, similar to Robinson.” —Danny Kelly, Field Gulls
Similar picks: Tony Jackson (#196, 2005); Craig Jarrett (#194, 2002); Ron Mattes (#193, 1985); Eric Lane (#196, 1981).
Ryan Seymour, OG – Round 7, #220 overall (@SEYMONSTER62)
“Fun” Fact: Moved from defensive line to offense early in college career.
“We talk about smart, tough, reliable, and that’s what he is.” —Schneider
“Quick enough to reach front side three-technique and cut off backside one-technique in zone scheme.” —ESPN
“Played effectively at several of line positions, taking snaps at center, guard and tackle.” —Vanderbilt Athletics
Similar picks: Josh Brown (#222, 2003); Dennis Norman (#222, 2001); Judious Lewis (#221, 1985).
Ty Powell, DE – Round 7, #231 overall (@tytan9)
Fun Fact: Was a QB in high school and led his team to a California state championship.
“We like the athleticism and the speed he brings.” —Schneider
“Ranked among the most explosive in his position group in the vertical jump (37″) and three-cone drill (6.98-seconds).” —Rob Rang, NFLDraftScout.com
“Very high ceiling as a pass rusher. Possesses a quick first step.” —ESPN
Similar picks: Greg Scruggs (#232, 2012); Justin Forsett (#233, 2008); Steve Vallos (#232, 2007); Jeff Kelly (#232, 2002); Rich Grimmett (#231, 1978).
Jared Smith, OG – Round 7, #241 overall (@unhsmitty90)
Fun Fact: Played defense in college, Seahawks will convert him to guard like they did with J.R. Sweezy.
“We’re excited about his upside from an athletic standpoint. Very similar mold as Sweezy.” —Schneider
“Hits all the marks in terms of height, weight and top-end speed. Average arm length (33.5).” —ESPN
“I will always feel that I need to prove to everyone why I belong, but I like having that pressure on me because I know that I will work harder than anyone. Working hard is in my nature from being a New Hampshire Wildcat and I am willing to prove that to anyone.” —Jared Smith
“(Smith) earned the nickname ‘Fat Rabbit’ for his surprising speed and agility within an outsized frame.” —Louis Bien, SB Nation
“As long as (switching positions) gets me to where I’m going, I’m going to work very hard.” —Jared Smith
Michael Bowie, OT – Round 7, #242 overall (@61likebowie)
Fun Fact: Started college career at Oklahoma State, was dismissed for violating undisclosed team rules.
“Big, athletic, great feet, long arms. Has a bit of a background, if he overcomes that has a chance to be a great pro.” —Schneider
“He’s the type of guy they call a developmental swing lineman prospect.” —Mike Mayock, NFL Network
“Bowie has a massive frame, and a lot of upside in terms of athleticism and natural power. However, he is raw.” —ESPN
Similar picks: Malcolm Smith (#242, 2011); Ryan Plackemeier (#239, 2006); Deatrich Wise (#242, 1989); M.L. Johnson (#243, 1987); Adam Schreiber (#243, 1984); Ezra Tate (#240, 1979); Bob Bos (#239, 1976).
The Undrafted Free Agents
Matt Austin, WR, Utah State: “A big, physical wide receiver with great hands.” [USU player page]
Alvin Bailey, OT, Arkansas: “Blessed with a natural anchor to limit his opponent’s opposition.” [NFL draft page]
Kenneth Boatright, DE, Southern Illinois: “Was 26th nationally in TFLs per game (1.23).” [SIU player page]
Ramon Buchanan, LB, Miami: “Was one of the top defenders out of Florida as a recruit.” [CBS draft page]
John Lotulelei, LB, UNLV: “A thick OLB (with) quickness and closing speed.” [NFL draft page]
Ray Polk, SS, Colorado: “Ran the 40 at 4.40 and had a 39-inch vertical jump.” [NFL draft page]
Jordon Roussos, OG, Bowling Green: “BGSU’s offensive line allowed just 13 sacks all season.” [NFLDraftScout page]
Dominique Whaley, RB, Oklahoma: “Walk-on turned into team’s starting RB.” [OU player page]
Craig Wilkins, LB, Old Dominion: “ODU’s all-time leader in tackles, sacks, forced fumbles, and interceptions.” [ODU player page]
The Seahawks are good again and there’s plenty of room on the bandwagon. Nate Silver has climbed aboard, so why not you? To establish your Hawks fan bonafides, this lifelong fan humbly suggests five tasks.
1. Punch Yourself Repeatedly in the Face.
This simple exercise will replicate 37 years of Seahawks fandom. Since 1976, we fans have endured such trauma as the team nearly moving to Los Angeles, the Vinnie Testaverde helmet touchdown, and Dan McGwire. Make one of the punches extra hard to represent Super Bowl XL, when referee incompetence robbed the Seahawks of a world championship.
2. Select Your Game Day Garb
From dogs to babies to the elderly to mystery beings, Seahawks fans love to dress up. If elaborate face paint and 8 pounds of Mardi Gras beads isn’t your style, snag a t-shirt at the team store. If you want to look really legit, check out the vintage Seahawks gear at Throwbacks NW. This hat says “I remember the Chuck Knox years” even if you don’t.
3. Respond to the Name “Twelve”
Seahawks fans are known collectively as “Twelves,” a reference to Seahawks fans as “the 12th man.” The Seahawks retired the #12 in honor of the fans in 1984. You’ll often see folks wearing Seahawks #12 jerseys with “Fan” on the back.
4. Join the Cult of Wilson
Rookie quarterback Russell Wilson is practically a deity in Seahawks’ fans eyes after having one of the best rookie seasons in history. Beyond that, the humble yet driven Wilson appears to be pretty much the world’s greatest person.
5. Be F***ing Loud
Perhaps as a way of throwing off our culturally inherited Scandinavian reserve, Seattle fans are exceptionally loud. The NFL instituted an anti-noise rule in 1989 because of deafening Kingdome volumes, and the tradition has continued at CenturyLink Field. Since the Seahawks began playing there, opposing offenses have committed 121 false starts–more than at any NFL stadium. Screaming fans actually caused a seismic event during a 2011 playoff game.
Ready, go! Someday, maybe we’ll randomly hug in a bar after a Seahawks touchdown. We’ll try not to get our beads tangled.