While we all wait nervously to see if our city will be the lucky recipient of one of the NBA’s worst teams, a franchise that’s much closer to winning a championship begins their season. In case you’ve forgotten — and from the looks of the attendance figures you have — the Seattle Mariners are our Major League Baseball team. They start their 2013 season Monday in Oakland.
The Mariners finished in last place last year, and the year before that, and the year before that, but have been stealthily stockpiling some of the best young talent in baseball. Kyle Seager, Dustin Ackley, Jesus Montero — their names, faces and stories are only vaguely familiar, even to diehard Mariner lovers. But I believe that they will be the cornerstones of a team that will contend for a World Series, starting this year. (NOTE: If you want you can buy this whole monster of a Mariners preview at the Kindle store for $1.99. Or just read it here for free.)
The Fences Come In
When Safeco Field was conceived in the performance-enhanced 1990s, home runs were ho-hum — especially in the Kingdome. Seattle baseball fans had grown weary of the 12-9 final score, and longed for baseball decided by sharp fielding, cagey pitching, and timely hitting. Now, after 14 years of taut, low-scoring SafecoBall, we have come to a conclusion: F*** that noise.
Home runs are coming back, as the Mariners have moved the fences within closer reach of today’s…more hormonally-balanced, shall we say, hitter. The biggest change is in left center, where the walls are as much as 17 feet shallower. The M’s expect the new configuration to produce 40 more homers total, so about one every other game. They also expect a positive effect on the confidence of the team’s hitters, some of whom had drastic home/road splits indicative of Safeco-induced psychosis.
Jesus Montero and Kyle Seager aren’t the only beneficiaries of the Great Shrinkage. Fans get a new place to hang out in the form of Edgar’s Cantina, a new open-air bar with cocktails from Rob Roy mixologist Anu Apte, which will put mezcal-guzzling hecklers practically on top of the opposing team’s left-fielder. It’s really a win-win.
Average Age Goes Down
With Ichiro, Chone Figgins, and Miguel Olivo out of the opening day lineup, the Mariners are younger and by definition friskier. Sure, GM Jack Zduriencik brought in some oldsters like Raul Ibanez and Kelly Shoppach to provide “veteran leadership,” which they will do from their asses on the bench like many inspirational leaders throughout history. (Perhaps you can sense my skepticism re: the concept of veteran leadership!)
Here’s my point: The younger your team, the more likely that they will improve, both between seasons and as the year progresses. You may have heard of a very young team called the Seattle Seahawks which went from losing to the Arizona Cardinals 20-16 in September to piledriving those same Arizona Cardinals 58-0 three months later. I am not suggesting that the 2013 Mariners can produce a 58-run victory–not unless they move the fences in another 200 feet — but unlike many recent Mariner seasons, you can reasonably expect better individual performances, as most of the M’s are entering their baseball-playing primes.
Awesome New Video Screen Goes Up
At 11,245 square feet, the Mariners’ new McMansion-sized HD video screen is the largest in baseball. I can’t get over the size of this thing — the video screen is actually bigger than the infield. The Mariners will now be able to display their dancing groundskeepers 57-feet high, ensuring nightmares for both children and professional choreographers.
The screen is part of a $15 million renovation, and while the reflexive dumb fan thing to say is, “Why don’t they uh spend that money on getting better players amirite Softy,” this is obviously a business decision. That area of the park is advertisable space, space that has been dominated by signboards, which are no more technologically advanced than cave paintings. As the Mariners own artist’s depictions suggest, the board can be used to display ads during play and between innings, ads that can be delivered dynamically and don’t require a wallpapering crew to change. This is a smart investment that will help the Mariners make more money from advertisers, which could mean lower beer prices. If you are against lower beer prices then you are against AMERICA.
Last Place Finishes Are Out
The Mariners have finished in last place in 7 of the last 9 seasons, but not this year! We’re movin’ on up, thanks to Major League Baseball putting the godawful Houston Astros in the American League West. More on the Astros later, but suffice it to say that they lost 107 games last year. It’s not exactly “a rising tide lifts all boats” but as a Mariners fan I’ll take it.
Can the Mariners overtake anyone else in their division? That’s what the rest of this longread is about.
The Starting Lineup
Jesus Montero – C
A bat-first catcher trying to flash enough glove to stay behind the plate.
Montero is a terrific hitter for a catcher…when he’s batting against left-handed pitchers, against whom he posted an .830 OPS in 2012. Against right-handers — who FUN FACT are the majority of the pitching population — Montero OPSed just .609. Basically, Montero was Adam Jones against lefties and Jemile Weeks against righties. His defense is suspect and without major improvement this year he will find himself competing for at bats as a full time DH/1B.
Last year: .260/.298/.386, -0.4 WAR
Justin Smoak – 1B
A can’t-miss prospect turned total bust with a few months to save his career.
Smoak was a top 10 prospect, but after 1,421 MLB at bats he has a lower career OPS than Dan Wilson. Smoak’s .431 average and 4 homers this spring have given fans hope, but to my eye switch-hitting Smoak’s bat still looks slow from the left side of the plate, where he, like Montero, struggled last season. If Smoak starts slow, he’ll lose his starting spot.
Last year: .217/.290/.364, -0.5 WAR
Dustin Ackley – 2B
Looking for a bounce-back season after a sophomore slump.
After breaking in with a stellar 2011, Ackley had the second-worst OPS of any AL regular last year. His level, up-the-middle swing doesn’t seem to have changed and last year his Batting Average on Balls In Play was an unlucky .265 after being .339 his rookie year. Split the difference the way the projections do and Ackley should be worth around three wins this year.
Last year: .226/.294/.328, 1.1 WAR
Brendan Ryan – SS
The majors’ best defender…but can he hit enough to keep his job?
Brendan Ryan is an unbelievably skilled SS, so good that player value metrics suggest he was one of the Mariners’ best players even though he hit just .198. Think how valuable he could be if only he had any clue how to hit a baseball. Ryan’s offensive approach isn’t far off from close your eyes and swing. Which can be effective, if you when you hit the ball it is likely to go a long way. Ryan, who struck out 98 times, hit only 3 home runs. If Ryan can’t get his offense sorted, fast-rising SS prospect Brad Miller is ready to step in.
Last year: .194/.277/.278, 1.4 WAR
Kyle Seager – 3B
Your 2013 American League All-Star third baseman?
Most projection systems expect Seager to regress after a stellar 2012, when he was the Mariners’ most valuable position player. But Seager’s whole career has been about defying expectations — how many 3rd round middle infield draftees are leading the big club in home runs three years later? Seager’s homers are not of the moonshot variety, and if a few more end up in outfielders’ gloves rather than fans’, his numbers could drop. But with the fences moved in, Seager could add to his home run total. Heck, an injury to Adrian Beltre and Seager could be your starting 3B for the AL All-Star Team.
Last year: .259/.316/.423, 3.6 WAR
Michael Morse – LF
Injury-prone slugger who’ll scare you in the field and may be past his prime.
Desperate for power, the Mariners gave up valuable and versatile John Jaso to get Morse, a former Mariner. If Morse can’t muscle balls out of Safeco, and the M’s struggle, this move could be one of the last significant ones Jack Zduriencik makes.
Last year: .291/.321./.470, 0.0 WAR
Franklin Gutierrez – CF
One time future franchise cornerstone who lost 3 seasons to disease and injury.
As far as we know, stomach problems that plagued Gutierrez in 2010 and 2011 are gone, and pec muscle he tore in 2012 is healed. At 30, will have still have the speed/power combo that made him Jack Zduriencik’s first key acquisition? To me, Gutierrez is the key to the Mariners’ year. If he can replicate his pre-injury 6.0 WAR season, they’ll be in the playoff hunt until the last day of the season.
Last year: .260/.309/.420, -0.3 WAR
Michael Saunders – RF
A rare power/speed player with breakout potential.
With a shorter swing and more aggressive approach, Michael Saunders swung at more pitches and made better contact in 2012. The result: career-highs in everything. This March, Saunders led the World Baseball Classic in hitting with a 2.042 OPS over 3 games. Yes, 3 games, but still! Saunders had such a huge improvement last season, projection systems expect him to fall back to mediocrity. I’m not so sure. An athletic player, going into his prime…I can see Saunders having a huge season.
Last year: .247/.306./432, 2.1 WAR
Kendrys Morales – DH
Slugger acquired to add pop to anemic lineup.
If there’s anything that makes me think the Mariners will be more competitive it’s that they have Morales to take over if Smoak is once again one of the worst players in baseball. Morales’ 22 homers would’ve led the Mariners last year. He came to the Mariners in trade at a steep price — starting pitcher Jason Vargas — but gives the team important Smoak insurance.
Last year: .270/.320/.467, 1.6 WAR
Bench
Kelly Shoppach – C
Veteran backup won’t kill you on offense.
$1.5 million is a lot to spend for a backup catcher, but Shoppach will probably get more at bats than the average backup because of Jesus Montero’s defensive limitations and the fact that the Mariners want to limit wear and tear on the 23-year-old. Shoppach’s not a bad hitter, with a career 96 OPS+.
Raul Ibanez – OF/DH/Leadership
Hired for his veteran presence, production would be a bonus.
Baseball’s gotta be one of the few industries where you can get hired for a job and have the bosses say publicly that they don’t expect you to do much work, they got you mainly for your personality. At age 41, Raul Ibanez is on the Mariners to provide veteran leadership, plain and simple — and he’s getting paid $2.75M to do it!
Jason Bay – OF/Embarrassment
Former star who flamed out, Mariners hope vainly for resurrection.
This really is the biggest joke of the offseason. Jason Bay experienced a Chone-Figgins-like collapse with the Mets, who will pay Bay $18 million this year. Now Bay’s getting an additional $1M guaranteed from the Mariners after hitting a couple of dingers in spring training. Suffice it to say that life is about as fair as playing Go Fish with your cards facing up. There is absolutely no precedent for a player at Bay’s age magically recapturing his hitting stroke after three consecutive years of decline; the Mariners’ decision to keep Bay over the younger, more versatile, and simply better Casper Wells has been widely ridiculed and for good reason.
Robert Andino – UT
Will be a big improvement at a minimally important position.
Last year’s utility infielder, Munenori Kawasaki, looked, acted, and hit like an 11-year-old. With the Mariners well out of contention it didn’t really matter that they gave 115 plate appearances to a guy who nearly slugged below the Mendoza line. And Kawasaki did provide some comic relief — that’s not another crack about his hitting, he did some fun dances in the dugout between innings. Andino, a major contributor to last season’s Baltimore Orioles miracle, isn’t a great hitter, but he’s much better than Kawasaki and can play any infield and outfield position.
Starting Pitchers
Felix Hernandez
New contract, same dominant Felix.
The video of Felix Hernandez’ March 23rd spring start vs. San Diego ought to have been censored for American League hitters. Hernandez’ change-up was on, and when that happens, he can be LITERALLY unhittable, as the Tampa Bay Devil Rays found out last August 15th when Hernandez threw the 23rd perfect game in MLB history against them. In February the Mariners signed King Felix to the largest contract in team history, a $175M deal that goes through the 2019 season. Best move ever.
The arsenal: Mid-90s fastball, sinker, change, slider, curve.
Hisashi Iwakuma
Mariners betting his strong 2nd half wasn’t a fluke.
Iwakuma has a deadly split-finger fastball, which hitters miss or pound into the ground. His ground ball rate was 52.2 percent, best on the team. Good skill to have with the fences moving in.
The arsenal: Low-90s fastball, terrific splitter, slider, curve.
Joe Saunders
Free agent fill-in while kids develop, was sneaky good in 2012.
The 31-year-old Saunders posted the best walk and strikeout rates of his career in 2012. He should benefit from the still-spacious Safeco outfield and the Mariners’ stellar infield defense. This looks like a smart signing and could end up as one of the best of Zduriencik’s tenure.
The arsenal: Low-90s fastball, change, curve.
Brandon Maurer
Man of many pitches came from nowhere to steal rotation spot.
Maurer didn’t have his own entry in the 2013 Baseball Prospectus, and here he is having made the Mariners’ rotation. Maurer works fast and throws a variety of pitches, all of which he seems to have pretty good command of.
The arsenal: Low-90s fastball, change, slider, curve.
Blake Beavan
The control artist and innings-eater bloggers love to hate.
Beavan’s skill set — few missed bats, few walks — does not impress computer projection systems. It does impress Eric Wedge, who likes that Beavan reliably keeps the Mariners in games. Think of Beavan as the boring but steady husband who holds down a job (and never brings his work home with him), goes to church every Sunday (and always has a check ready for the collection plate), coaches his son’s baseball team (and never raises his voice), and enjoys the comedy of Ron White (but only when he’s had a couple of brewskies).
The arsenal: Low-90s fastball, slider, curve, change.
Bullpen
Tom Wilhelmsen
Reclaimed barman, current closer, master of the curve.
Wilhelmsen’s knee-buckling curveball makes for a fun game-ending exclamation point. Relievers are notoriously fickle, and the projections think Wilhelmsen will regress this season after a stellar 2013. If he does, the Mariners have a lot of live arms in the wings.
The arsenal: Mid-90s fastball, awesome curve.
Stephen Pryor
Big arm, big control issues. Pryor pitched his first 26 MLB games last year, all as a reliever. He flashed a 96-mph fastball, but also walked 5.1 batters per 9 innings.
The arsenal: Mid-90s fastball, cutter.
Carter Capps
Triple-digit fastball. Capps came up in August throwing heat the likes of which Mariner fans have never seen. He struck out 28 batters in 25 innings.
The arsenal: High-90s fastball, curve.
Oliver Perez
Resurrected starter. Perez somehow found a couple of extra miles on his fastball, consistently hitting 93 mph, and rose from AAA filler to key set-up man in the span of a few months.
The arsenal: Mid-90s fastball, slider.
Charlie Furbush
Lanky, sidearming lefty killer. Furbush held lefties to a .143 average, and wasn’t bad against righties either.
The arsenal: Low-90s fastball, slider, curve.
Kameron Loe
Experienced righty sinkerballer. By arrangement with the Baseball Writers Association of America, one non-roster invitee must “beat the odds” to make the major league club every year. Loe is this year’s electee.
The arsenal: High-80s sinker, slider.
Lucas Luetge
Rule V claimant are belong to us! Heisted from Jack Z’s former employers in Milwaukee, Luetge held lefties to a .186 average and 1 HR in 98 PAs, but righties hammered him.
The arsenal: High-80s fastball, slider.
The Competition
Houston Astros
The Astros, moved to the American League to accommodate season-long interleague play (there are now 15 teams in each league), are currently one of the weakest teams in modern major league history. After going 56-106 in 2011, the Astros went 57-107 in 2012 — both marks are worse than any the Mariners have ever put up. That’s pretty bad. Astros manager Bo Porter was named The Least Powerful Person in Sports by Sports Illustrated due to the fact that the Astros aren’t even pretending that they are giving him the players to succeed. They traded away the team’s best hitter, Jed Lowrie, to the A’s in the offseason, this despite the fact that they are going into the American League this year and will need a DH. The Astros’ designated “hitter” this year will be Carlos Pena, who batted .197 for the Devil Rays last year. This is truly a terrible baseball team, and you can make a very good case that, by virtue of playing 18 games against Houston this year, the Mariners’ chances of making the playoffs are dramatically enhanced.
Los Angeles Angels
What you know: Haven’t made the playoffs since 2009 despite annual free agent spending sprees.
Who’s new: OF Josh Hamilton, the back end of the rotation (Tommy Hansen, Joe Blanton, and former Mariner Jason Vargas).
Oakland Athletics
What you know: Shocked the world with a division title.
Who’s new: CF Chris Young, SS Hiroyuki Nakajima, IF Jed Lowrie.
Texas Rangers
What you know: Started strong, flamed out in September, lost Josh Hamilton.
Who’s new: C A.J. Pierzynski, DH Lance Berkman.
Best Fan Giveaways of the Year
Mon., April 8 – Magnetic Schedules
Fri., April 26 – Beard Hat Night
Sat., May 25 – Felix Hernandez Perfect Game Bobblehead Night
Sat., July 13 – Dustin Ackley Gnome Night
Sat., August 10 – Ken Griffey Jr. “Mariners Hall of Fame” Bobblehead Night
Possible 2013 Mariners
Mike Zunino
The #3 overall pick in the 2012 draft, Zunino demolished rookie league and then AA pitching on his way to a spring training invite. He’s headed for Tacoma and if he can keep hitting, he’ll be in Seattle soon.
Endy Chavez
Chavez is the first man up in case of an outfield injury.
Brad Miller
Miller, a shortstop, had 186 hits last year, 2nd in all of minor league ball. If Brendan Ryan can’t manage a .200 average again, Miller will take his job.
Erasmo Ramirez
Ramirez started 8 times for the Mariners in 2012, compiling a stellar 8/41 B/KK ratio and a .979 WHIP. He’s the first pitcher up in case of injury or incompetence.
Prospects to Follow
Taijuan Walker
If the question is “Who is the best Mariners prospect?” the answer is either Mike Zunino or Taijuan Walker. MLB.com has Walker as the #5 prospect in all of baseball. Walker throws hard, and pitched effectively in AA at age 19 last season. He’ll probably pitch at Jackson again this year.
Danny Hultzen
The #2 overall pick in the 2011 draft was fantastic at AA Jackson last year — then he moved up to AAA and lost the ability to throw strikes. 8.0 BB/9 won’t get it done at any level. Hultzen goes back to Tacoma to find the strike zone again.
James Paxton
Paxton, Hultzen and Walker were supposed to be the Mariners’ “Big Three,” but Brandon Maurer passed them all. Paxton struggled with command at Jackson last year, and again in his few chances to impress at big league spring training.
Nick Franklin
Franklin made it to AAA at age 21 last year, no small feat. He scuffled in Tacoma, as his strikeout rate spiked. Probably saw some pitches they don’t have at the lower levels. He’ll be at AAA again.
Stefen Romero
The Oregon State product was the M’s minor league player of the year last year, punishing AA pitching to the tune of a 1.012 OPS. A good 23-year-old should do that, though — Romero is 13 months older than Jesus Montero. He’ll also be at AAA.
Other Interesting Minor League Names (Literally and Figuratively)
Gianfranco Wawoe
Not a conceptual artist, rather, an 18-year-old outfielder from Curacao who hit .253 in the Venezuelan Summer League last year.
Ugueth Urbina
The son of the former Marlins closer, Ugueth the Younger is also a reliever. He was 3-0 with a 2.44 ERA in the Venezuelan Summer League last year.
Forrest Snow
The very first player from Lakeside ever selected in the major league baseball draft (36th round, 2010), Snow pitched at three levels last year including 9 games at AAA Tacoma (1-2, 5.35 ERA, 36 Ks in 35.1 IP).
Dario Pizzano
The winner of the most Italian name award is actually from Saugus, MA and played college ball at Columbia. He won the Appalachian League batting title last year in his first pro season, hitting .356 for Pulasky.
Jimmy Gillheeney
Not a corrupt mayor of the 19th century, rather, a left-handed pitcher drafted in 2009 (8th round) who after three years of pitching at High-A ball, owns the High Desert Mavericks all-time strikeout record.
Rusty Shellhorn
Not a lanky cowhand, rather, a kid from the Spokane suburbs drafted in 2012 (31st round). Rusty is in fact his given name. He started 13 games at 3 levels last year, getting as high as low-A Clinton.
The Mariners play their first home game Monday, April 8, against Houston. Here’s their full schedule. And here’s where to buy tickets!