Tag Archives: shadow inventory

Redfin: “It’s All About the Inventory”

Redfin's Seattle heat map for July 2011

Redfin’s August round-up of real estate news, trends, and financing desiderata is out, and it’s a good news-bad news assessment. “Prices are stable again, rising in most markets since April,” writes Glenn Kelman, but he cautions that limited inventory is behind the stabilization, and that winter’s typically slower (than summer) sales volume lies ahead.

If you are a shadow-inventory catastrophist, you may be cheered to hear that Kelman thinks the problem may not be as first thought. Or you may calculate that any iceberg above a certain size is enough to sink a large ocean liner.

Redfin’s Seattle-area heat map for July shows a few bastions of hot property (prices up, multiple offers): Magnolia, Ballard, Queen Anne, and North Seattle. They’re enough to keep Seattle at 12th on the national heat index (but at a tepid 56.6 “degrees,” behind Portland at 59). Home values were down most in Lake Union, Rainier Valley, Lake City, Delridge, and Snoqualmie Ridge.

Seattle Bubble calls it a “flat, boring summer” and notes that King County’s median home price of $350,000 has rewound to roughly 2005. “[E]ven during the worst year of the dot-com recession in 2002 we had 25% more sales in August than we did this year,” offers Tim Ellis, for contrast, in his follow-up post on NWMLS stats.

To give you an idea of what foreclosures are still doing to home values, here’s $104,000 1-bedroom “Fannie Mae, HomePath-owned Condo” near 23rd Avenue and East Cherry. Someone on Capitol Hill really wants out of their condo: This studio’s price was dropped $20,000 to $119,000, and it sits at 17th Avenue and John Street, a hop, skip, and jump from Trader Joe’s and Madison Market. Plus, a classic claw-foot bathtub.

Foreclosure Delays Cast Shadow on Real Estate Market

Seattle Bubble describes the unusual foreclosure picture best: “Foreclosures Establishing an Elevated Flatline.”

Despite a national trend of foreclosure footdragging, RealtyTrac puts Washington State at 15th highest for foreclosure in the U.S., looking at filings for the first two quarters of 2011. Overall, RealtyTrac claims that 1 in every 632 Washington housing units received a foreclosure filing in June 2011.

Seattlepi.com quotes the RealtyTrac CEO saying: “”We estimate that as many as one million foreclosure actions that should have taken place in 2011 will now happen in 2012, or perhaps even later.”

Seattle Bubble marks that trend with a post titled “The Shadow Inventory Next Door,” while over at Redfin, Glenn Kelman explains why firesale foreclosures are more likely to be purchased by hedge funds than middle class bargain-hunters:

The problem is that the programs designed to ease credit for the middle class, Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and Veterans’ Administration (VA) loans, impose rules that have completely diverged from the new realities of a distressed market. Banks liquidating as-is properties at fire-sale prices will almost never agree to the repairs needed to make a home move-in ready, as required by FHA and VA loans. And banks aren’t waiting for additional inspections, appraisals or paperwork required by FHA and VA loans.