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posted 06/15/10 03:50 PM | updated 06/15/10 03:50 PM
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Washington's Unemployment Rate "Treading Water"

By Michael van Baker
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Graph: Washington State Employment Security Dept.

There are likely over 100 headlines about Washington's unemployment rate today that are using some variation of "drops" or "falls," and it's making my head hurt. That's not just because the gains are almost entirely due to temporary jobs added by the 2010 Census (all but 200 of the 8,600 jobs added were governmental).

It's because it strains the meaning of the word "drop" to use it in describing a 0.2 percent difference, especially with a measure that wasn't designed to offer that kind of real-time accuracy (monthly results, so breathlessly reported initially, are often revised). It's like our headline writers are all devotees of The Secret.

What is true is that, apples to apples, we're measuring the same rate of unemployment as May 2009, says AP. You might think that a year has gone by with no appreciable improvement, but even that's not true: the state has 27,000 fewer jobs, year-over-year (30,000 less in the private sector). That's the difference between a rate and absolute numbers.

(More fun with numbers: the monthly unemployment rate is derived from a survey that counts people who are "actively seeking work." If you don't have a phone, have given up trying to find a job, were desperate enough to take a part-time or contract position, or have gone back to school to retrain, you're not unemployed.)

Signficantly, you don't find the word "falls" in that AP story's quote from Dave Wallace, chief economist at the Employment Security Department:

[Wallace] cautioned that because of the temporary nature of the Census jobs, "it's a mixed or neutral job picture."

He said in all, the private sector only saw a net gain of 200 jobs, which is "pretty much treading water."

Any bets on how many headlines include that phrase, "treading water"? Other than this post's, I mean? And while the unemployment rate can be said to be treading water, the unemployed cannot.

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unemployment
It seems we've adjusted what we think is good news about unemployment. Are we stuck at this level of unemployment forever? It used to be that 4% was considered "full employment" but is that number now going to be 6% or 7%?
btw, I've been hearing great job search advice on an internet radio show at www.jobtalkamerica.com
Comment by sam
1 day ago
( --1 votes)
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RE: unemployment
btw I've been reading some terrific covert ads disguised as blog comments in the comment sections of http://thesun-BURN!!!!!.com
Comment by Steve Winwood
1 day ago
( +1 votes)
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RE: unemployment
When I look for great job search advice, the 1st thing I do is check out internet 'radio' shows.
Comment by bilco
4 hours ago
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