Category Archives: Science

Unhealthy Denialism or Healthy Skepticism? Only the Specter Knows

Michael Specter’s book Denialism (de rigueur subtitle-of-absurd-length: How irrational thinking hinders scientific progress, harms the planet, and threatens our lives) might look like it’d fit nicely on the bookshelf with Why People Believe Weird Things and Unscientific America, but it would likely jump the other two and scuff up their dust jackets. Specter has been writing for the New Yorker since 1998, and some of the Big Apple’s pugnacity seems to have rubbed off on him. Or maybe he was always that way.

It’s a curious book because while you might expect Holocaust (or other genocide) deniers, 9/11 conspiracy theorists, creationists, global warming skeptics, or other troublesome bands of misinformers to pop up, they don’t. “I decided to focus on issues like food, vaccinations, and our politically correct approach to medicine,” writes Specter in the introduction, “because in each of these arenas irrational thought and frank denialism have taken firm root.”

Yet as Grist argues in a critique of the book, if a small group of global warming deniers delays action long enough that we reach a point of no return for the planet, that’s a big deal. If a small group of people insist on paying more for Whole Foods organic produce because it makes them feel healthier, that’s…part of their shopping budget. Yet, Grist notes, “The book’s index has no entry for ‘climate change.’ The entry for ‘Global warming’ cites just one page—a reference to genetically modified foods as a “solution” to global warming.”

I can’t speak for Specter, but his approach feels Freakonomics-y or Gladwellian: one of those “forget everything you thought you knew” come-ons, juiced up with the blood of a few hodgepodge sacred cows. In his introduction, Specter’s language is fairly circumspect and even-keeled. But the chapters on the “irrational” response to Vioxx, hysteria around vaccines, the rise of the organic food fetish and natural supplement worship, and the role of genetics in medical treatment, contain what some call “provocative” and others might call “unsubstantiated” claims.

Even when I agreed with him, Specter managed to rub me the wrong way. Though he struggles to sound filled with empathy for the irrationalists, Specter comes off as an old-school anthropologist tolerant of a tribe’s quaint superstitions. Of course it’s natural for you to believe that god threw the lightning at you, he seems to say. (I kept wondering who he was writing for–I’ll get the chance to ask him when he’s town.)

Again and again, Specter presents what sounds like both sides of an argument, except that one’s irrational, anti-science, and threatening all our lives. Specter takes the lesson of the Vioxx scandal to be primarily one of emotional overreaction. We don’t understand pharmacological medicine, so we trust and fear it in equally overreaching amounts. If we rationally accepted its risks, Vioxx might be on the market today.

What he doesn’t spend a lot of time considering is whether the overreaction is called for given the scope of our reliance on this medicine. That is, we can’t really afford to have pharmaceutical companies lying to us about known problems with medicine prescribed to millions–it would set a troubling precedent.

There’s an argument to make for Vioxx, and Specter makes it persuasively. But he also tells a story of practiced deceit, political pressure, and retributive firing and ends his chapter saying: “Most people don’t walk out the door trying to hurt other people.” No, they don’t. But most people don’t run pharmaceutical companies. That pool is tiny. And a few bad apples could potentially poison the apple cart. So we hold them to higher standards.

His chapter on vaccines is an easier read, as it has less of a “gotcha” set-up. The history of vaccines’ effectiveness is very good. As we’ve distanced ourselves from firsthand experience of the diseases the vaccines prevent, we’ve become more upset about the rates of real and imagined reactions to the vaccines. Despite numerous studies not finding any correlation between MMR and autism, you just can’t persuade some people otherwise. Good enough.

The “Organic Fetish” chapter, on the other hand, almost immediately hits a sour note when Specter goes to Whole Foods and discovers that the word “organic” is being used extremely loosely. In this and the “Era of Echinacea” chapter, Specter inveighs against organic foods and natural supplements for not being marketed ethically. But if some organic-label foods aren’t really organic, and natural dietary supplements are mostly unnecessary for people eating a balanced diet, the issue isn’t just denialism, it’s the fact that marketing claims, across the board, are highly suspect.

Then, comes this: “To those people [the world’s poor], the Western cult of organic food is nothing more than a glorious fetish of the rich world–one with the power to kill them.” There’s so much wrong with this statement, I’m nonplussed. Yes, that’s where we should start with our criticism of American over-consumption. Organic food. The admittedly watered-down label that comprises less than five percent of American food.

When Specter goes on to defend Monsanto and the industrial farm products of conglomerates like ConAgra from the court of public opinion, you sense that he might have his Davids and Goliaths mixed up. And when he says, “Farming is, by its nature, an assault on the earth,” and says that because we’re losing arable land, we need another agricultural revolution, he loses me. Just out of curiosity, have we lost more or less arable land since the last agricultural revolution?

There’s a good debate worth having about what works with industrial farming and what’s broken, and whether genetically modified crops are not just an option but a necessity, but I don’t think I want Specter to moderate it.

Specter makes plenty of good points; certainly it’s worth understanding denialism as a human response, and what triggers it: that we’re not all that good at weighing disparate risks, that a poor grasp of history aids and abets our imaginative doomsaying capacity, and that we deal with the unpredictability of complex systems by invoking conspiracy theories.

Certainly there is a strong anti-science movement made up of people who find intellectual discovery inimical to their traditional beliefs, and of people who prefer the amazing malleability of woo-woo explanations. Five minutes in the Bay Area can load you up on enough pseudoscience (and bud!) to last a lifetime. Or you can drop in at the Creation Museum in Kentucky. (I’m not convinced that the alternative medicine research of NCCAM is, on the other hand, a complete betrayal of the scientific method.)

But trauma and violations of trust have radicalized others, who may permanently watchdog all pharma companies, not just those who have been caught red-handed. These people are not in denial, just hypersensitive–they’re placing a bet on corporate culture and the corruptibility of humanity. It would be a mistake to characterize debate on these issues as solely between reason and unreason, which unfortunately is a side-effect of the book’s structure. Reasonable people disagree, and not simply because someone’s calculations are incorrect. Our values differ.

  • Michael Specter speaks in Seattle on November 17, for the World Affairs Council. The talk begins at 7 p.m. at Kane Hall at the UW. Tickets are $15 general, $10 WAC members/students.

Andrew Chaikin Wants to Send You to the Moon, Baby

Moon at “Crazy Pretty Sunset” courtesy of The SunBreak Flickr pool user slightlynorth

It’s been a while since we’ve visited the moon, 37 years since the last Apollo mission, to be more exact. Sure, we’ve sent robots up there, but no one’s taken a leisurely stroll on the moon since Eugene Cernan on the Apollo 17 mission.

Andrew Chaikin has spoken with 23 out of the 24 people that have walked on the moon, and has written several books about moon exploration. Recently he visited the Pacific Science Center to make his case for a return to the moon.


After a short introduction by the Science Center’s Senior Vice President for Strategic Programs, Chaikin shared with us his excitement for all things moon-related. In the cavernous reaches of the old Eames IMAX Theater, an intimate crowd of bespectacled gentlemen, families, and two kids that weren’t like the others braved the weatherpocalypse to listen to him speak and show slides.

His tan sportcoat and the earthy green sweater of a college professor contrasted with the hints of smiles at the corners of his mouth. Like a kid who just got a Nintendo 64 for Christmas, his enthusiasm for the subject was contagious. I’m pretty sure that was his goal.

There are several reasons why we are not running manned missions to the Moon these days, according to Chaikin. The most obvious is the lack of money. Yet, the reason for the lack of money can be traced back to the distinct lack of societal interest. In the late ’60s, Chaikin was 12 and visited a NASA space center. Like many young boys of his generation, he wanted to be an astronaut.

(I would guess that the number of young children who currently respond “astronaut” when asked what they want to be when they grow up is pretty disheartening to Chaikin)

Chaikin presented a slide show that felt a lot like family vacation photos. Except this family went to the moon. Even though Chaikin has never been, his description of the slides made it seem like he was a part of the exploration of it. And, in a way, he was. He has recorded the personal history of the experiences of those that have traveled to that remote vacation spot in various books in a search to know what it felt like to go.

As far as I can tell, it’s pretty amazing. The view is pretty decent. You can run for miles and never get tired. You can drive as fast as your battery-powered car will go without worrying about tickets. Your tan when you come back will really impress your co-workers. And, you will have a chance to learn about the history of the solar system by checking out “a book from the cosmic library,” as Chaikin calls it.


Lunar geology really gets Chaikin excited. As he states, “On the moon, not a lot has happened in the last 3 billion years.” This gives scientists a chance to learn about how planets are formed, how often meteors, comets, and whatnot will hit Earth, and various other scientific endeavors that have probably not even been thought up yet. (For example, trying to bomb the moon.)

Chaikin reported that the LCROSS mission was pretty unspectacular. A couple pixels of heat registered on an infrared camera. We got a blurry image of a tiny plume of dust from the rocket smashing into a crater that has never seen the sun and is happy at -390 degrees Fahrenheit. Our goal was to find water in that crater. What did we find? Maybe we’ll know by the end of the year, but we sure don’t know yet.

In his slide show and his report on current moon research, Chaikin seemed to be touching on a common theme with his statements. Occasionally, missions like LCROSS or the Mars Rover stimulate the country’s curiosity and need for exploration, but Chaikin says that we need to become more ardent explorers again. Seekers of not just adventure, but knowledge. He sees a scientifically apathetic youth and, perhaps worse, an apathetic government when it comes to space exploration.

One of the reasons for this is that there is “no gold rush in space.” Simply, there is no obvious money to be made. However, Chaikin mentioned China’s goal to put humans on the moon as a possible motivation for the U.S. to get on with the making of Space Race 2: Electric Boogaloo. Even private companies are finding ways to profit from potential space tourism.

Yet, every pound of material launched into space still costs $100,000, according to Chaikin. This is not cheap. Chaikin realizes that it will be quite some time, or require some new technological advances, before space travel comes down in price.

Still, he has ideas about how we can get back up there. He thinks NASA should focus more on research and development of new technologies. He advocates for more science education in schools. And, perhaps most importantly, he yearns for those days when Americans were eager to go explore. When we were curious about our universe. By writing his books and showing amazing pictures of places none of us have ever considered visiting, he hopes to inspire the next generation of space explorers.

Michael McCarthy’s Stealthy Health Guide

“The local angle really does get people’s interest,” said Michael McCarthy, editor, publisher and et al of the Seattle Local Health Guide. He’s a slender, bearded man with a warm manner and it’s not all that surprising to learn he’s an M.D. himself, trained in internal medicine by Virginia Mason.

His online health guide currently devotes a section to H1N1 flu developments, another to health advice and tips, another to healthcare industry news. It’s attracting about 25,000 readers per month–all the flu news has pushed numbers up ever since May, and once people find the site, they come back. The initial site was born in 2007, and reborn a year ago in its WordPress incarnation.

It may be time, McCarthy admitted a little ruefully, to work harder on the site’s revenue stream. Like many people who have founded a news site, he’s driven primarily by the sense that it’s a public necessity.


Michael McCarthy

McCarthy writes stories himself, and aggregates health industry and policy news from sources like Kaiser Health News and ProPublica. “There are more than enough stories out there,” he emphasized. He likes to follow a story’s real-time transmission, from a World Health Organization H1N1 conference, to the CDC presser hours later, to a public announcement the next day by Madrona’s public schools about their flu policy.

“Part of what’s valuable is just finding what’s good that’s available,” he added. Health care news that hasn’t caught mainstream interest is out there, but it’s chasing too few reporting resources.

His imaginary “reader” is a mom staying educated on health care, but in practice, the site casts a much wider net. McCarthy points out that King County total employment in the health care sector rivals Boeing’s. Recently he’s begun working with the Seattle Times, which has, thanks to a grant from American University’s J-Lab (via the Knight Foundation), started exploring content collaboration with local bloggers.


McCarthy, on other hand, brings journalism chops of his own to the table. Previously he was a “laptop bureau” for the British medical journal The Lancet, becoming their North American editor. He’s also been a stringer for Reuter’s. It shows in his coverage–he’s been asked to inject more of his personality into the site. It’s something he’s hesitant to do. He’d prefer that readers find what they need without his editorializing. There is enough of that around health care policy.

Flying in the Face of the Flu Vaccine

Reading The Atlantic magazine’s “Shots in the Dark” article, I paused at this sentence: “When Lisa Jackson, a physician and senior investigator with the Group Health Research Center, in Seattle, began wondering aloud to colleagues if maybe something was amiss with the estimate of the 50 percent mortality rate reduction for people who get flu vaccine, the response she got sounded more like doctrine than science.” (Scientific denialism?)

Actually, I paused earlier, at “What if everything we think we know about fighting influenza is wrong?”

But let’s back up a moment. Amid the novelty of H1N1 lies the more mundane annual death rate from seasonal flu. On average, estimates place the number of people the flu kills in the U.S. at 37,000. (The CDC penciled down 56,000 for influenza and pneumonia combined in 2006.) For context, about 37,000 people die in car accidents each year, and 30,000 are shot to death.

The problem is that the U.S. population is getting older, and one thing no one is arguing is that the flu kills older people. Something like 90 percent of flu fatalities are in the 65-and-older age range. (Children get sick with the flu in huge numbers, but they don’t die from it.)

Flu deaths in absolute numbers have been rising in the elderly, despite a huge increase in senior citizens getting vaccinated. In a 2007 study (by Lone Simonsen, Robert Taylor, Cecile Viboud, Mark Miller, and Lisa Jackson) published in the Lancet, the authors noted that influenza-related mortality rates had not declined since 1980, though vaccination coverage shot up from 15 to 65 percent.

But then there were all those studies between people who got vaccinated and those that didn’t, which showed a robust correlation between vaccination and not dying during flu season. In fact, The Atlantic says, it was too robust. A 50 percent reduction in mortality rates seemed to indicate that the seasonal flu vaccine prevented deaths of all kinds. Yet Jackson says she got brushed off when she brought the topic of miraculous vaccination up: “People told me, ‘No good can come of [asking] this.”

No doubt this was partly in response to the larger “anti-vaccine” movement. If you want to dive down a particularly fraught rabbit hole, Google “vaccine” and “autism.” On Vashon Island, you can read about how antiviral drugs and flu vaccines are “equally problematic,” and that you should stock up on elderflower and other herbs used during the 1918 influenza epidemic that killed over 500,000 in the U.S.

But partly the problem was that since it was commonly accepted that flu vaccines worked and worked well, it would be unethical to run a truly blind experiment and thereby condemn some study participants to death by flu. And it’s true–healthy adults give you a great immune response to a flu vaccine, just as they do to the flu itself. But what Jackson, et al, suspected was that a number of hidden biases were operative in the comparison of the vaccinated and non-vaccinated senior citizens.

Broadly speaking, the healthy elderly were getting flu shots, and frail or ill seniors weren’t.

They ended their 2007 paper with a call for more rigorous study. And then in 2008 Jackson (with Group Health data) provided that study (authored also by Michael Jackson, Jennifer Nelson, Noel Weiss, Kathleen Neuzil, and William Barlow). Also published in the Lancet, Jackson’s study concluded that for the age group of 65-94, vaccination did not reduce the risk of pneumonia (with pneumonia standing in as an outcome of the flu).

So either ducking the flu doesn’t mean you’ll duck pneumonia, too, or the flu vaccine isn’t working on senior citizens, who most need it to work well. But the conclusion the doctors came to is worth underlining because of the popular tendency toward dogmatism and its evil twin, enantiodromia. This is what makes someone–who lives in a world made possible because of effective vaccines–decide to toss “Western medicine” because a vaccine may work better on one age group than another.

We have plenty of options, Jackson and her colleagues said: “These options include the development of more immunogenic vaccines for elderly people, use of larger doses of vaccine, the combining of live and killed vaccine formulations, use of antivirals in a more aggressive manner for treatment and prophylaxis, and indirectly protecting elderly people through increased vaccination of transmitter populations.” That is, if this vaccine is not working as well as we want, we’ll work on making it better.

It’s ironic, but affirming what we don’t know keeps leading us to better decisions.

Feds on the Hunt for Radioactive Bunnies in Eastern Washington

Science is happening as these government employees feed radioactive waste to sheep at Hanford!

For people of a certain age, each new ecological horror story that emerges from the Hanford clean-up project holds a special fascination. It reminds us of the glorious, prelapsarian days of the late Cold War, when we didn’t have to worry about global warming or Islamic terrorists because we all knew we were going to die in a nuclear apocalypse. Ah, childhood!

So it was with sweet memories of grade school and my dad forcing me to watch Red Dawn (because “this is going to be you some day”) rolling through my head, that I read this morning’s New York Times story on how the feds are searching out radioactive rabbit droppings by helicopter.




Anything that hops, burrows, buzzes, crawls or grazes near a nuclear weapons plant may be capable of setting off a Geiger counter. And at the Hanford nuclear reservation, one of the dirtiest of them all, its droppings alone might be enough to trigger alarms.

A government contractor at Hanford, in south-central Washington State, just spent a week mapping radioactive rabbit feces with detectors mounted on a helicopter flying 50 feet over the desert scrub. An onboard computer used GPS technology to record each location so workers could return later to scoop up the droppings for disposal as low-level radioactive waste.

Frankly, I’m just impressed anything can live there at all. Mother Nature is truly impressive. Oh, and do I need to point out this was paid for with $300,000 in stimulus money? Apparently locating radioactive critters wasn’t important enough to include in the main operating budget.

If you share my fascination with this disgusting hell-on-Earth that science has created for us, don’t forget that Hanford is now the most sought-after tourist destination east of the Cascades! Last year, the Department of Energy opened a limited number of public tours that booked within hours. There’s no set date yet for when registration for 2010 tours opens, but you can check at this link. It’s Super Fund for the whole family!

And one final note: Why the hell are they remaking Red Dawn?

Moon Survives Impact of Centaur and LCROSS

Certain people found my moon-cracking-open-like-an-egg fears alarmist. And obviously, in retrospect, the egg is on my face.* NASA’s LCROSS mission, designed to test for water (ice, actually) on the moon, went off without a hitch at around 4:30 this morning. The Centaur rocket made its divot, the following spacecraft sent back its data (series of photos, impact video), and then it too augured in a few minutes later, leaving a 100-foot-wide hole.

However, sane people do have concerns about tossing our old tincan spacecraft all over the moon. As National Geographic reports, NASA has already littered the lunar surroundings with over two dozen orbiters, landers, and rovers. It sounds funny, but there’s a growing “lunar conservationist” movement that wants to make sure future smash landings are carefully vetted, so that the moon doesn’t end up looking like Oscar Madison’s apartment. Neatniks in space!

*I can’t believe I left off the /joke tag.