"much can be said" courtesy of our Flickr pool's +Russ
How is the Seattle real estate market like an ice cream cone? It's frozen and it either is currently "clearly a double-dipper" or will be. (Once again, Portland gets there first.)
Hell may have frozen over as well as Seattle; the Seattle Bubble says this could be a good time to buy a home. Granted, they're talking about prepared buyers taking advantage of that below-market deal they've found. Anecdotally, this is echoed by Redfin's report on the Seattle area market, which notes that a few first-time home buyers are making their move.
Otherwise, of the Seattle area homes pulled off the market in November, a full 60 percent were delisted by owners who plan to wait out the winter. Only 40 percent were sales. Of the city of Seattle 1,700-house November inventory (down 14 percent from October), 344 sold, while the time it took to close on a sale continued to lengthen thanks to difficulties finalizing financing.
Seattle condo sales remain way back in the deep freeze section, down a full 50 percent year over year. 137 sold, but 200 were delisted, to wait for spring. The Bubble warned that the home buying credit program was simply pulling demand from the future, and that once it ended, we'd see the frozen wasteland currently before us. But it is also true that many first-time buyers went the condo route, and now sit underwater, unable even to think of taking a short sale's loss; the average condo sale price per square foot is down just 1.2 percent from last November.
Meanwhile, bottom-callers have these home-price declines to stare at. (Here's the Bubble's latest Case-Schiller graphs.) It's not just Seattle, of course--Seattlepi.com reports that Seattle and ten other metro areas are seeing a "triple-dip," and analysts predict anywhere from another six to fifteen percent slide over 2011. (Nor is the problem limited to residential real estate--the Wall Street Journal reports that Beacon Capital Parters, owners of the Columbia Tower Center, are selling their best-performing asset to raise capital to meet debt obligations.)...
Connoisseurs will note that this studio condo's location, at the corner of East Union and Belmont, actually leaves it perching on the north shoulder of First Hill. But since the bustling Pike/Pine corridor is just down the street, I don't think people will sniff at you if you call it Capitol Hill.
This 377-sq.-ft. studio in the Belboy Condos is admittedly cozy, but it does come with 10 feet tall ceilings. In addition to a the benefits of a renovation of this 110-year-old building--intercom systems, updated electrical, kitchens, and bathrooms--you can enjoy a large full bath, a fireplace, and leaded glass windows.
All for just over $100,000, if you can imagine that. (If you can imagine bank ownership, more to the point.) HOA dues are $208, and property taxes are $996. There's an open house this Sunday, October 24, from 1 to 4 p.m.
"Short Sales, Foreclosures, and Bankruptcy Sales: Oh My!" is the subtitle of a section of Redfin's monthly real estate report, and that's partly a warning for bargain hunters:
Non-refundable costs needed up front, the stress of buying home as-is, and a process that seem interminable are all common issues encountered when buying distressed inventory. Sometimes the pain is worth the gain, it just depends on your constitution....
(more)
"Buyers know that now is the time to get the big home with a view at a price that is hundreds of thousands less than just a couple of years ago, and at an incredibly low interest rate," says West Seattle Redfin agent Dan Mullins. He wasn't talking about condo auctions specifically, but he captures the appeal succinctly.
For real estate market watchers, the auction is also a useful barometer. Over the weekend, 32 condos in the luxury condominium tower Olive 8 hit the auction block, and the results support those dismal few prognosticators who suspected, back in the boom days, that the market was overvalued by some 30 percent.
Keep in mind, while perusing the Olive 8 sales, that this is what a luxury downtown condo goes for. Wendy Leung at Seattle Condo Review gives you a great by-the-numbers breakdown (with more granularity than you'll find in the Seattle Times Olive 8 auction story):
The homes were sold for an average of 66% of the previous listing price, which is very close to the average of the last few auctions (Queen Anne High School, Lumen, Brix, Gallery, and 5th and Madison) since 2009 at 67%.
Leung goes on to separate out high and low bids by condo size, and to work out their price per square foot. While the average discount from list price was 34 percent, a larger two-bedroom went for only 54 percent of list. The units being sold ranged between the 18th and 26th floors in the 39-story tower--the more expensive units above, over 100 unsold, have "price tags from $500,000 to $6.9 million," says the Seattle Times, who also make room for a cheery broker's quote:...
"Foreclosures continue to surge around Seattle," reports the Seattle Bubble, with King County's 1,413 notices of trustee sale in July representing an increase of 13 percent compared to July 2009.
Thus this 410-sq.-ft. studio condo on East Thomas Street, just off Belmont on Capitol Hill, which the bank will let you have for $135,000. It's eligible for HomePath financing, so you can buy with just three percent down (about $4,000).
View the listing on Windermere or Redfin. It's a 1917 brick-exterior building, with natural gas and a heat pump. HOA is $252 per month, but property taxes are $1,617.
The price is down from an original $144,900 and it's been on the market for about a month and a half.
Redfin's July real estate summary compares buyers to vultures ("Vultures! Vultures everywhere!" Sorry. It's a tic.) who won't act until sellers pull the listing in despair, or someone else tries to snap it up. Sales volume is down, and inventory even ticked up slightly, as Seattle home sales dropped over 15 percent from June. Their spreadsheet shows 2,129 houses for sale in Seattle, and 1,373 condos. The median sale price for condos was $342 per square foot; for houses, $330.
Bottom line, says Glenn: "So far in August, we have seen record numbers of Redfin customers touring properties in Seattle, but buyers are very picky, and in no rush. Prices are going to stay down for the rest of the year, and probably longer."
As you may know, I like to keep an eye on the motivated sellers on Capitol Hill, as a kind of market barometer. Here's a special case, likely due to financing.
This one bedroom is on the second floor of a 1924 brick co-op near Seattle University, 1136 13th Ave. Redfin says it's been listed for over a year; Windermere has it selling originally for $175,000, now for $149,000.
It's 600 square feet, with a redone kitchen: granite countertop, slate floor. It comes with a stacked washer/dryer combo, and the HOA dues of $312 include earthquake insurance (because brick, see). It faces south, which is terrific, and there's a large walk-in closet. Downside, baseboard heat, not FHA-approved. I imagine that last is a sticking point for bargain shoppers.
With a 20-percent down payment, your mortgage and HOA could still be under $1,000 per month. And, you have to like the location. At 13th & Union, you're blocks away from everywhere you want to be (i.e., Café Presse and Stumptown, Piecora's, the Pike/Pine corridor, Pony...really, anything fun that begins with "P"). Assuming it doesn't fall down around your ears in the Big One, you're in a good spot.
Escala's news release last Wednesday reported 65 new sales, with 38 closings, in the last three months. That's 38 of a total of 275 units, after the condo tower reopened with prices reduced 20 to 50 percent at the end of March. (Last February, the PSBJ was reporting that only six units had sold, and current King County tax records show just eleven units in private ownership.)
Designed by Thoryk Architecture (Mulvanney G2 were architects of record, and DiLeonardo International, Inc., did the interior design), the 30-floor, $370-million tower from developer Lexas Companies has come down in the world since 2006, when you could "reserve a home" with a $10,000 deposit. (Urbnlivn took the video above, and wrote a review, after touring an open house.)
The idea was to overwhelm Seattle's highest-living with luxury amenities, including a "spa, library, billiard room, theatre/screening room, fitness center with a lap pool, a catering kitchen, a formal dining room, and an events center." There was a marble staircase at the entrance, of course.
In 2007, as the Seattle Times reported, it was the "year of the condo" in Seattle: "Real-estate economist Matthew Gardner shared Thyer's optimism, telling an audience of about 700 that demand for new places to live downtown will remain 'very positive.'"...
This week's wow-look-at-that-price selection is from the unfortunately named Maison Jiselle development at 14th Ave. and Yesler: a one-bedroom that at 139,000 could give you mortgage payments of less than $1,000 a month (FHA-approved, HOA $161, taxes $1,371).
Seattle Condo Review says it's a 16-unit conversion project (the 1928 original construction got the usual upgrades in electricity, plumbing, and windows), and notes the location is "pretty close to Seattle University, the International district, and Capitol Hill." Dan Ariely says the most important question you can ask about a new home is who you want your neighbors to be, so read up on the Central District.
It's a "very walkable" location, says Walk Score, 82 out of 100. Your bar is Waid's and your movie theatre is Central Cinema. Besides, something called the First Hill Streetcar will be two blocks from your front door, if you don't feel like walking beginning 2013.
People who have visited say unless you choose to wear wide-angles contact lenses, you will find the "very efficient" 480 sq. ft. to be somewhat less visually dazzling than the photos would have you believe. (I love how convenient the laundry is to your bedroom laundry basket.) No parking, no storage unit, but the units overlook an "English garden" courtyard.
Forget Thailand. Belltown is where the action is. Our network partner Seattle Crime tersely summarizes the condo rebellion:
Seattle police are on the hunt for Belltown condo owners who are apparently holding their condo association's flatscreen TV hostage as part of a coup to overthrow the building’s owner association leadership.
Realtor descriptions of the Ellington betray no evidence of the social unrest that has flared up so dramatically, though it seems to have stemmed from a fine levied for running the security gate and secretive board meetings. Paying $709 in HOA dues leaves you feeling entitled to due process, apparently. Maybe this cautionary tale can be worked into future performances of Condo Millennium?
How appealing is it to potential renters to find out that their apartment could be "put up for sale as condos again in 18 to 24 months"?
That's what those canny development moguls at Schnitzer West, owners of the Bravern, have decided to find out. To beat slumping demand for condos (they let Eric Pryne at the Seattle Times in on the strategy), "we're shorting the supply." ("That's like saying 'I quit' after you've been fired," says a Seattle Times commenter.)
The 236-unit south tower will be offered for lease as apartments, beginning at $1,100 (and reaching the heady heights of $5,000) per month. You can still sneak into a condo in the north tower for as little as $320,000, says the PSBJ.
What's puzzling about the rental pitch is the firm's insistence it's only until the market recovers. First of all, what recovery means in Bellevue isn't exactly assured. Pryne writes that: "County records indicate about 150 of the 377 units at Washington Square, completed in early 2008, remain unsold. And buyers have closed on fewer than 100 of 539 condos at Bellevue Towers, completed early last year, despite price cuts last summer."
Second of all, how large is the pool of renters who don't care when their residence becomes a condo re-conversion? Personally, I might tone that optimism down until I rented a few of those 236 vacant units.
Yes, it's a fixer-upper. It's in a co-op. And it seems to be named after a down-market school. But at $109,000, it's like the time travel machine worked and we've landed back in the 1990s.
Your one-bedroom hideaway just north of Pine Street on desirable 15th Ave is 541 sq. ft., there's what looks like a claw-foot tub, and you get radiator heat. Oh, the luxury. The kitchen is Lilliputian. No getting around that. But with Teriyaki Madness and Zaw Pizza just flip-flop distance away, when will you be cooking anything besides toast?
Of course I'm right. Now get out there and make an offer. There's never been a better time to buy!
UPDATE: Matt Goyer found actual listings for you to choose from: Redfin, Windermere, and John L. Scott.
"Another Damn Condo" courtesy of Flickr's Great_Beyond
After my earlier post about the architects, engineers, and contractors involved in the construction of the ill-fated McGuire tower, and the city's admission that it plans to inspect more high-rises to see if more McGuires are rusting away in plain sight, I decided to ask Seattle's Department of Planning and Development a few questions.(For prescient, you can't beat Clark Humphrey, who wrote this 2002 story on Belltown's future--a year after The McGuire opened: "In 1999, city officials estimated that 150 to 200 recently built condo units had some form of water damage, needing a total of over $100 million in repairs. Some of these buildings will undoubtedly fall into serious disrepair before their occupants have paid off their mortgages.")
I wanted to know more about the city's role in assuring condo owners of quality construction of their homes--stepping back from this particular extreme instance to discuss the inspection process, and what level of responsibility the city takes for the number of water-damaged condos out there. DPD Deputy Director Alan Justad took the time to write back.
My first question was inspired by a Seattle Times story on the McGuire, in which I learned the city "does not inspect structural components of large buildings directly, but instead relies on a private report from a third-party inspection firm selected by the contractor."
What's the thinking behind allowing contractors to pick their own inspectors?
I think that was from a misstatement by me. The building code specifies that the owner selects the third-party inspector, not the builder. The demands of special inspections is such that it is not practical for the city to staff that work. Larger jobs can require as many of three special inspectors at the site on some days; sometimes an inspector needs to be there all day. We’ve had years where there were over 1000 projects needing special inspections. The standard throughout the country is to use private sector inspectors for this specialized work that requires ongoing oversight at the job site.
Is the use of a rain screen system solely at the discretion of the architect/contractor? If so, has the city considered implementing guidelines to promote (if not require) use of a system?
Yes, this is a design decision for the applicant and their design team. We’re not planning to require it—there are other systems that work.*...
Bing's Streetside view captures the scaffolded look of The McGuire
Yesterday, the news broke that a 25-story high-rise in Belltown, The McGuire, would be torn down just nine years after construction, due to "defects." The $31-million apartment tower, at 210 Wall Street, had been clad in scaffolding for months, as the owners tried to deal with cracking and spalling of the concrete exterior, due to problems with reinforcement placement in the building’s frame.
Further investigation revealed that post-tensioned slabs--widely used in high-rises to help support and strengthen the concrete, and allow for thinner floors--contained cables that were corroding. (After it opened, The McGuire fairly quickly had troubles with water entering the building's envelope, and then the wrong paint and grout had been used to protect the cables from water, as well.) The City of Seattle Department of Planning and Development told the owners to repair it or vacate by the end of 2010.
Given the costs of repair, the Carpenters Union Local 131 and MEPT, the Multi-Employer Property Trust, gave hundreds of residents notice to vacate. (The McGuire's original developers were the Carpenters Union Local 131 and Harbor Properties.) Ronald Holden, Belltown's eyes and ears, reports on his blog Cornichon that residents are being offered substantial incentives to quit the building by May 15.
Legal advisers Kennedy Associates said the owners were suing the general contractor and architects. Emporis.com and the city's permits confirm that the general contractor on the project was the national firm McCarthy Building Companies, Inc., one of the top ten commercial builders in the U.S. Here is their differentiator:
Because we are true builders, owners get more and better options. Faster and safer execution. And a clear cost/benefit solution that yields the best final cost, every time.
Structural engineers were ABKJ, who also worked on Harbor Steps and Belltown's Arbor Place. Architecture firm Hewitt has a long list of Seattle projects, from Harbor Steps and Belltown's The Klee lofts and suites, to the Capitol Hill light rail station and University Village. Most recently, they are working on Belltown's Third & Cedar project, a 17-story tower with about 200 units, funded by HB Capital....
Slightlynorth gives you...Belltown!
(Follow-up post on the architects, structural engineers, and general contractor here.)
The McGuire apartment building, at 210 Wall Street in Belltown, opened its doors in 2001. Now, just nine years later, it's closing them for good. Though the marketing copy, ironically, boasts "exceptional attention to detail in design construction," the 25-story building, with 272 units, is suffering from "corrosion of post-tensioned cables and concrete material and reinforcement placement deficiencies," according to legal real estate advisers Kennedy Associates. (Their full press release, with full grout details, is after the jump.)
Since repair is financially infeasible, residents are being relocated (with larger incentives the sooner they leave), and the building will be dismantled. Everyone must go by the end of this year. This comes as a bit of a shock to residents of the upscale building, who are paying $1,000-$1,500 per month just for studios. But investigation of the defects revealed that conditions were becoming unsafe, and Seattle's Department of Planning and Development is requiring the building's owner to submit periodic inspection reports to track the building's health.
Carpenter’s Tower, LLC, is the named owner, a partnership of the Carpenters Union, Local 131, and MEPT, the Multi-Employer Property Trust. They're suing the general contractor and architects (not named in the news release). Since it's unlikely the general contractor built just one structure, I've got a call in to find out who it was.
In the heyday of building before the real estate market crashed, roughly from 2001 onward, just-add-water condos sprouted up quickly. Nine years was enough to do The McGuire in--that doesn't seem that long. But the Seattle Times just reported on Northgate's Thornton Place condominiums, and the settling problem that 20 of the 109 units are experiencing, just a year after project completion. Floors and walls have separated by half an inch so far....
It's fall and web-spinners are out, spinning webs for 3GS iPhone auteurs or just hanging out making you nervous.
Seattle Bubble tipped us off to this CHS story about Seattle's condo auctions this weekend, and KUOW's "condo glut" take. Short story: the auctions are likely to reset condo values lower citywide. Seattle Bubble thinks that a valuation reset is about time.
Mayor Nickels released his budget for 2010, which slashes city staff and raids our rainy day fund. It also raises $600 million for the deep-bore tunnel construction project. The city council sounds ready to rubber-stamp it--except for Nick Licata.
On the SunBreak, Roger reported on a class action lawsuit proceeding against the Oklahoma Thunder née Seattle Sonics ownership group. Jeremy looked into the Twilight future of Forks, and MvB talked with Metro chief Kevin Desmond about technology and transit.
Next week, Publicola is looking forward to The Pink Panther at Central Cinema. Count us in. More than ever, the world needs Peter Sellers' Inspector Clouseau.
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